As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 21.

BUY: Phil Foden

• Cost: £7.9m
• Selected by: 25.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 28.6

As many FPL managers are looking to fill a Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) or Son Heung-min (£9.8m) sized hole in their squads, we turn our attention to midfield options.

This season there are a plethora of picks from the middle of the park, but who should we choose? Sadly, there is no single stand out pick. This is about weighing up the pros and cons. But the midfielder we are finding hardest to ignore is Phil Foden (£7.9m).

Foden has always been a frustrating asset to own from an FPL perspective. Absolutely bursting with potential, but never getting consistent game time. But, in the wake of the injury to Kevin De Bruyne (£10.3m), this has all changed. In fact, Foden is ranked third – amongst outfield players – in terms of minutes played for City this season.

His form has been unbelievable, particularly in recent Gameweeks. A double-digit haul against Sheffield United marked four goal involvements in his last three appearances. His underlying data is also strong; Foden is second only to Erling Haaland (£13.9m) in terms of xFPL points (91.87) amongst City players (Opta Stats Sandbox).

The big question is: what will the imminent return of De Bruyne do for Foden’s game time? Of course, we can only speculate, something which is very dangerous when Pep Guardiola is concerned. Many feel (myself included) that Foden’s recent form has been too good for Pep to ignore and that, when De Bruyne is fully fit – and Foden inevitably loses his position as the central attacking point – he will be moved out wide rather than being relegated to the bench. This, of course, means he may endure the occasional late subbing, as he competes with City’s other wide options.

This is something which needs to be weighed up against the positives. Good form and strong fixtures. Even the Newcastle away game (which is regarded as the toughest of City’s fixture run) isn’t as bad as it looks on paper. Newcastle have been awful at the back recently and news that Joelinton (£5.8m) – who is absolutely key to Newcastle’s midfield – is injured, further sets the scene for a City thrashing.

One final thing to consider is the fact that Manchester City are very likely to have a double in Gameweek 25. A transfer for a City asset now is one less to make further down the line.

SELL: Mohamed Salah

• Cost: £13.2m
• Selected by: 35.2%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0

The best FPL asset, probably in the history of the game, is not available for the foreseeable future. While this is a major loss to owners, it also opens up possibilities for engaged managers to restructure their team and get ahead of those who remain unaware of Salah’s departure – or are not willing to part with him.

The upcoming landscape is full of unknown variables and could be a tumultuous time for FPL managers. One area of significance is the impending return of Haaland to the City lineup. Rumours indicate that Haaland could be back in time for City’s Gameweek 22 fixture against Burnley, making him not just a necessary pick, but that Gameweek’s standout captaincy option.

If you are amongst the 3.3 million managers who have sold Haaland since Gameweek 16, then an absolute priority will be finding a way to get him back in the squad. Many managers will have distributed the Haaland money around the squad, meaning bringing him back is no longer a straightforward task. After all, he is £5 million dearer than the next most expensive forward.

Selling Salah in Gameweek 21 is the perfect way to free up funds to allow for a straight swap in Gameweek 22, when others will have to take a hit to restructure their team. Of course, it won’t be long until Salah returns from AFCON and then, once again, we have the conundrum of funding his return, but that is a problem for another time.

KEEP: Trent Alexander-Arnold

• Cost: £8.4m
• Selected by: 23.8%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 27.0

Over 360,000 FPL managers brought in Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) before the Gameweek 20 deadline, and with good reason. The Liverpool full back was averaging 8.25 points per game since Gameweek 12 and, as a permanent resident on Liverpool’s team sheet, was becoming a must have.

Unfortunately, his new owners were met with a 0-pointer after he conceded two goals, picked up a yellow card, and wasn’t involved in any of Liverpool’s attacking returns when Newcastle visited Anfield for their 4-2 defeat. It has since been revealed that he picked up a knee injury in that same game and hence is facing a “three-week” spell on the sidelines. A savage turn of events for those who have only just brought him in.

This has prompted a mass sale of Trent with over half a million managers getting rid of him head of the Gameweek 21 deadline, according to Transfer Analytics. But it is important to remember that Gameweek 21 is unusual in its duration. While the Gameweek starts tonight, it doesn’t actually end until Monday 22nd January. Gameweek 22 then doesn’t start until Tuesday 30th January, by which point Alexander-Arnold’s three-week recovery time has lapsed and could see him available for Liverpool’s next fixture against Chelsea.

Managers who keep hold of Trent may have an advantage over those scrambling to get him back the very next Gameweek.

By Matt Whelan

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