As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 22.

BUY: Kevin De Bruyne

• Cost: £10.6m
• Selected by: 20.5%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 22.7

While FPL managers are craving clarity, it would seem every passing cup game adds more questions than answers. There is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the upcoming schedule and, in most cases, rolling the transfer may be the optimum move this Gameweek.

For those who don’t want to burn a transfer, or have squad issues to sort out, then the only thing we can say with any certainty is that Manchester City and Brentford will double in Gameweek 25, and neither team will blank in Gameweek 26. As Brentford face both Liverpool and Manchester City in their double, it would seem sensible to make City assets a priority.

Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) reminded the footballing world what City have been missing with a match-winning performance against Newcastle. In just 21 minutes the Belgian playmaker bagged a goal and assist, turning his new owners’ frowns upside down.

It is impossible to compare statistics with De Bruyne being sidelined all season, however, using the Opta Stats Sandbox, we can look at last season’s creative numbers. Per 90, De Bruyne was ranked top for FPL assists (0.63). This season, the player with the best equivalent numbers is Darwin Núñez (£7.4m) with 0.60.

It is inevitable that De Bruyne will have his minutes managed as he eases himself back into the intensity of the Manchester City attack, but the midfield maestro has proved time and again, he doesn’t need much time on the ball to work wonders.

SELL: Mohamed Salah

• Cost: £13.1m
• Selected by: 25.3%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 0.0

While Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) was our ‘sell’ recommendation last week, it is worth revisiting once again as the landscape has now changed. Ahead of Gameweek 21, the reason to part ways with the Egyptian King was the fact that he was representing his country at AFCON and could be potentially tied up until Gameweek 24.

With Egypt now knocked out of the competition, a new problem has arisen. Salah has been sidelined with a hamstring injury which could see him unavailable for “three-to-four weeks” – a timescale which is frustratingly close to Gameweek 25, when Liverpool are increasingly likely to double.

While his rehabilitation is in the hands of the Liverpool medical staff, all we can do is plan around the possibilities as best we can. While some may be tempted to hold onto Salah, and therefore gain an edge on rivals when he returns, it is important to note some details.

First, the longer quote for Salah’s predicted recovery includes the crucial caveat “if there are no setbacks in his recovery”. Hamstring injuries, particularly tears, have notoriously long recovery times and hence the stated recovery time feels like it could be a little light. Second, Liverpool have a history of understating the severity of player injuries and so we must all treat “three-to-four weeks” with a huge pinch of salt.

In the interim, £13.1m is a lot of money to keep on the bench.

KEEP: Erling Haaland

• Cost: £13.9m
• Selected by: 51.8%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 45.4

If the Salah conundrum is in its early phases, then the Haaland conundrum feels like it is drawing to a close.

Erling Haaland (£13.9m) will soon become a priority for our teams, but his absence from the squad in their FA Cup clash against Spurs, hints that he may not be ready for a full 90 minutes in time for the Burnley fixture on Wednesday evening, despite featuring in training.

In this regard brining the Norwegian giant back into our squads may be a little premature, however, if you are amongst the circa 5 million players who has kept hold of him, then waiting a little bit longer could pay dividends. If he gets any minutes against Burnley, holders could gain an advantage over rival sellers.

By Matt Whelan

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