As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 23.

BUY: Erling Haaland

• Cost: £14.0m
• Selected by: 56.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 43.6

Those who got excited by Pep Guardiola’s comments – pertaining to the recovery of Erling Haaland (£14.0m) – will have undoubtedly been disappointed to find him on the bench against Burnley, and further saddened by his 11-minute cameo in which he produced an uncharacteristic 1 point.

It was perhaps inevitable that after nearly two months out, Haaland’s first game back would not be a full 90 minutes. Nevertheless, over 180,000 managers brought him back into their squads and nearly 9% of transfer combinations involving forwards were to send Julián Álvarez (£6.9m) the other way. This one move carried a 12-point swing (even more if you include captaincy).

With some minutes in his legs, the chance of a Haaland start against Brentford is exponentially higher. While bringing back Haaland in Gameweek 22 was a dangerous move, not bringing him back for Gameweek 23 feels like the current risk. His ownership is already above 50% and will continue to rise. According to Transfer Analytics, he is the most transferred in player with over a quarter of million managers getting him back.

In case you needed reminding, Haaland is the joint-top goal scorer with Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) and is ranked top for xG (15.24) despite playing 4 fewer games than his Egyptian rival. Not owning a fully fit Haaland can be bad for both your overall rank and your heart!

The question of whom to sell is much trickier.

SELL: Darwin Núñez

• Cost: £7.5m
• Selected by: 15.9%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 20.3

Darwin Núñez (£7.5m) is FPL chaos personified. Absolutely frustrating to own, yet absolutely terrifying for those who don’t have him. Seemingly always on the fringes of doing something unbelievably good, the Uruguayan forward can’t seem to convert his mind-blowing underlying data into correlating FPL returns.

Liverpool have hit the woodwork 18 times this season – more than any other team – exactly 50% of these near misses have come from Darwin. A quick look at the Opta Stats Sandbox and you will see that, in terms of shot volume, the Liverpool forward is top with 72. Even if you drill this down to shots on target (32) he ranks second best. His xG can only be bettered by Haaland and Salah and so it can’t be argued that Darwin’s opportunities are merely low-quality efforts.

Perhaps thankfully, Darwin may have offered a solution to owners (and respite to non-owners) by picking up a knock against Chelsea. Jurgen Klopp has announced that he will need to check the fitness of Núñez ahead of the Arsenal game.

With a potential injury in Gameweek 23 and a confirmed blank in Gameweek 26, perhaps this is fate’s way of helping owners make a difficult decision.

KEEP: Phil Foden

• Cost: £8.0m
• Selected by: 27.7%
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 31.9

The recommendation to keep Phil Foden (£8.0m) comes with an enormous caveat: if you are thinking of selling him, it all depends on who you plan to bring in.

According to Transfer Analytics, over 80,000 managers have already moved Foden along, making him the 4th most sold player ahead of Gameweek 23. Of those 80,000, roughly 40% have brought in Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m), which makes sense (so long as you are maxed out on City players).

But for those managers who are not considering a sideways move, a word of caution: keep your eye on the Fixture Planner. While Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) is a good pick with great fixtures, he doesn’t double in Gameweek 25 whereas Foden does. For the 13.4% of managers who exchanged Foden for James Maddison (£7.9m), have they factored in that the Spurs midfielder blanks in Gameweek 26, while City plays Bournemouth?

According to Player Points Projections, Foden is the 3rd best player to own for the next six Gameweeks so transfer him out at your own risk.

By Matt Whelan

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