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GW3 FPL Differential Focus

24 Aug. 2023

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.


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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 3 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

DEF: Rico Henry

  • Cost: £4.6m
  • Selected by: 5.6%
  • Next Fixture: CRY (h)

Fixture Planner

Brentford are ranked third for defensive fixture difficulty – over the next six Gameweeks - by the Fixture Planner and fourth-best for attack. It would make sense, therefore, to target a player who can benefit from both clean sheets and attacking returns. Cue Rico Henry (£4.6m).

With an assist against Tottenham, and a clean sheet against Fulham, Henry has got off to a confident start this season. Brentford are playing with intensity and sharpness; they have burst into the 2023/24 campaign seemingly unperturbed by the absence of talisman Ivan Toney (£8.0m) who is banned until 2024.

For owners of Gabriel (£4.9m), who has been benched in two consecutive Gameweeks, Henry could be the ideal replacement.

MID: Son Heung-min

  • Cost: £9.0m
  • Selected by: 5.9%
  • Next Fixture: BOU (a)

At just over 5% ownership, it seems nobody is talking about Son Heung-min (£9.0m). The new-look Spurs have got off to a solid start under Ange Postecoglu and remain undefeated despite having awkward opening fixtures and being without star striker Harry Kane.

Player Points Projections

Son looked way off the pace in the opening fixture against Brentford but showed signs of his usual tenacity against United. Spurs now have a great run of fixtures where they face Bournemouth, followed immediately by back-back matches against newly promoted Burnley and Sheffield United.

Despite Son’s quiet start to the campaign, the Algorithm is backing the South Korean to bag some points soon. In fact, according to the Player Points Projections tool, Son is predicted to be the third-top-scoring player in the next six Gameweeks - only Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) are expected to bag more points.

What’s more, he is a straight swap for owners of Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) who have become disillusioned by his meagre returns so far this season. For those willing to take a chance, a move for Son could be a great idea.

FWD: Julián Álvarez

  • Cost: £6.6m
  • Selected by: 7.9%
  • Next Fixture: SHU (a)

If at the start of the season, someone were to offer you a £6.6m forward, who plays for Manchester City, has a reasonable chance of remaining first choice under Pep Guardiola, and has scored and assisted in his first two appearances, you would probably bite their hand off.

Transfer analytics

But despite this, Julián Álvarez (£6.6m) is owned by less than 8% of managers. What’s more, he is going to face Sheffield United in Gameweek 3, a team who have already conceded 3 goals and are ranked third-from-bottom in terms of shots conceded (40).

According to Transfer Analytics, one of the most popular transfer combinations (10.9%) for forwards is João Pedro (£5.6m) to Julián Álvarez (£6.6m).

By Matt Whelan

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