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FPL Differentials: Unlocking Potential Under 10% Ownership

In the dynamic world of Fantasy Premier League (FPL), finding those under-the-radar players who can offer a significant points return is crucial for climbing the ranks. With the majority of FPL managers often gravitating towards the same pool of popular players, identifying and capitalising on low-ownership gems can be the key to gaining an edge. Conor Bradley, Richarlison de Andrade, and Jean-Philippe Mateta represent such opportunities. Each owned by less than 10% of managers, they offer a differential approach that could prove pivotal in the upcoming Gameweeks.

Conor Bradley (Defender)

FPL Cost: £4.1m

Overall Ownership: 6.6%

Top 100k Ownership: 3.1%

Predicted Points for Next Gameweek: 4.5

Next Fixture: Brighton (H)

Conor Bradley, the Liverpool defender, has made a compelling case for inclusion in FPL squads. Having played in 6 games (447 minutes) this season, the 20-year-old has amassed a total of 43 FPL points, contributing a goal and 3 FPL assists. With 3 clean sheets to his name, and considering his budget-friendly price tag, he is a very enticing option for Gameweek 30. However, FPL managers should be aware that this could be a short-term differential pick. When Alexander-Arnold returns from injury, Bradley's minutes are very likely to be reduced. But Liverpool's upcoming fixture against Brighton, with a 40% clean sheet projection, underscores his potential value. Bradley's recent form, characterised by consistent performances and attacking contributions from the back, makes him a standout differential pick for the coming Gameweek.

The above image from the Opta Stats Sandbox - filtered by per 90 minutes - demonstrates Bradley's attacking threat compared to other Liverpool defenders. He has only played 447 minutes, but has the most goals (0.20), shots on target (1.61), FPL assists (0.60) and expected FPL points (7.28)

Richarlison de Andrade (Midfielder)

FPL Cost: £6.9m

Overall Ownership: 4.0%

Top 100k Ownership: 2.1%

Predicted Points for Next Gameweek: 5.9

Next Fixture: Luton (H)

Richarlison, the Brazilian midfielder, has been a beacon of productivity this season. Participating in 23 matches (1,361 minutes), he has accumulated 108 FPL points through a combination of 10 goals and 3 assists. Interestingly, his goal tally surpasses his expected goals (xG) figure of 8.38, suggesting an efficiency in front of goal. However, the recommendation does come with the warning over a risk of minutes. The 26-year-old has just returned from injury, and it is not guaranteed he goes straight back into the starting line up or plays in the striker role as he previously has. Richarlison's form when featuring for Spurs has been nothing short of impressive, with impactful performances that have often turned the tide in favour of his team. As Spurs face Luton in their next fixture, Richarlison's potential for both goals and assists makes him an enticing differential choice.

The Match Stats tool's heatmap from the Spurs vs Wolves game (the last one Richarlison started) shows that the Brazilian was active in the opponent's area playing in the striker role.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Forward)

FPL Cost: £4.9m

Overall Ownership: 0.9%

Top 100k Ownership: 0.0%

Predicted Points for Next Gameweek: 3.3

Next Fixture: Nott'm Forest (A)

Jean-Philippe Mateta, the Crystal Palace forward, has been a key figure in his team's attack this season. With 5 goals from an expected goals (xG) tally of 4.92, and his 5 assists, surpassing his expected assists (xA) of 2.79, alongside his involvement in creating four big chances, highlight his dual threat as both a scorer and a provider. Despite Crystal Palace's challenging fixtures in Gameweek 32 and 33, the Eagles have an enticing Double Gameweek 34 facing West Ham and Newcastle at home. If FPL managers have bench cover for the difficult fixtures, Mateta's knack for finding the back of the net and his low ownership make him a compelling differential pick.

As the image from the Fixture Planner tool above shows, Crystal Palace are seventh for 'Attacking Fixtures' mainly due to their appealing Double Gameweek 34.

In conclusion, Conor Bradley, Richarlison de Andrade, and Jean-Philippe Mateta offer FPL managers the chance to differentiate their squads with low-ownership, high-potential players. As the season edges towards its climax, incorporating such differential picks could be the strategy that propels managers up the rankings.