As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign.

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In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 4.

BUY: James Maddison

• Cost: £7.7m
  
• Selected by: 20.9%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 29.4

Decisions, decisions… It is a tough call this week between the two in-form midfielders, both of whom have great fixtures and seem pivotal to their respective teams.

According to Transfer Analytics, Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling (£7.2m) is the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 4 with, at the time of writing, just under 1 million managers transferring the midfielder in. James Maddison (£7.7m) is a close second with over 750,000 transfers in.

So, why have we gone against the masses and recommended Maddison over Sterling?

First off, let’s take a look at the Fixture Planner. The difference in attacking fixtures for the two teams is not massive but Spurs, who play all three newly promoted teams in the next six Gameweeks just about beats Chelsea who only play Burnley (away) in the same time frame. Both teams endure two difficult fixtures in that period, although this ‘bad patch’ comes earlier for Spurs than it does Chelsea. In that sense Sterling may be the better short-term pick, but Maddison looks better if you expand your Gameweek horizon.

Next up, form. Both players have had a great start to the season but Maddison has better underlying statistics than Sterling, with the latter only ahead on goals and crosses (Opta Player Heatmaps). This is particularly pertinent when you consider that the bulk of Sterling’s accumulated data comes from Chelsea’s match against Luton, a fixture which could be considered an outlier. Despite Sterling’s extra goal, both players have 0.38 xG (per 90) and Maddison is leading on shots (2.85), shots on target (1.42) and shots in the box (2.49). He also exceeds Sterling in terms of creative data.

Finally, a look at the Player Points Projection tool reveals that the Algorithm massively favours Maddison over Sterling. The former is expected to be the fourth-top-scoring player between now and Gameweek 9 with projected points of 29.4, compared to Sterling who is ranked 17th with 24.6.

Neither player is a bad pick, but Maddison looks like he is the better choice.

SELL: João Pedro

• Cost: £5.5m
  
• Selected by: 17.5%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 9.7
  

In last week’s article, we suggested holding onto João Pedro (£5.5m) following the news that Julio Enciso (£5.3m) was to be sidelined with a long-term knee injury, boosting the former’s prospects of getting back into the starting XI.

Owners waited with bated breath to see if De Zerbi would play Pedro behind Evan Ferguson (£5.9m), but the Brighton manager instead played Danny Welbeck (£5.9m), ensuring a 30-minute cameo for Pedro and yet another blank for owners.

If you are amongst the 17.5% who still owns Pedro, you should probably have seen enough by now to sell him.

KEEP: Marcus Rashford

• Cost: £9.0m
  
• Selected by: 38.1%
  
• Projected Points (next 6 GWs): 23.3
  

Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) is the third-most-sold player ahead of Gameweek 4, which may seem counter-intuitive since he bagged two assists against Nottingham Forest, finally rewarding his owners.

A deeper look at Transfer Analytics reveals that 79.2% of Rashford’s transfers are to bring in either Sterling or Maddison, this week’s hottest midfield targets. This suggests that the transfers are being made with the incoming asset prioritised rather than managers losing faith with Rashford. Undoubtedly, a difficult fixture against Arsenal also forms part of the decision-making process.

But, there are two good reasons to keep Rashford. First, Erik ten Hag shifted Rashford over to his favoured left flank against Forest, opting to play Anthony Martial (£6.5m) centrally instead. The difference in positioning for Rashford’s attacking potential was clear to see, and it is likely he will operate as winger again at the weekend.

Secondly, Arsenal are looking very exposed down their left flank, with Thomas Partey (£4.9m) playing as an inverted right-back. On numerous occasions, Arsenal have conceded big chances when Partey has drifted centrally; if Arteta persists in exploring this new tactic, Rashford could have a field day against the Gunners.

By Matt Whelan

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