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At the end of the 2022/23 season, Kieran Trippier - who has been priced at £6.5m for the 2023/24 season - was anchored firmly into most of our teams. According to Live Insight, he was owned by 82.2% of the Top 100k in the final Gameweek of the season. His combination of attacking threat, BPS attraction, and clean sheet potential cemented his position as the top-scoring defender in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Earlier in the season, this ownership statistic was even higher and many of us even owned a second or third defensive asset from Newcastle. But, in light of Newcastle’s extraordinary defensive collapse last season, and their less-than-ideal fixtures for the start of the 2023/24 campaign, we look into whether it is worth investing in Newcastle defensive assets.

Fixtures

There’s no getting away from the fact that Newcastle has a difficult run defensively at the beginning of next season. According to the Fixture Planner, Newcastle is ranked 2nd from bottom in terms of fixture difficulty.

Aston Villa at home could prove to be a tricky opener. The Magpies then face Manchester City (away), Liverpool at home, followed instantly by Brighton and Brentford. An away game against Sheffield United is likely to be the only defensive respite in this period.

What happened to the clean sheets last season?

The sudden disappearance of Newcastle’s defence was one of the most stark and curious events of last season. Between Gameweeks 1 and 21, no team had more clean sheets than The Magpies (12). From Gameweeks 22 to 38, however, it was a different story. In those last 16 Gameweeks, Newcastle only managed 2 clean sheets (ranked 17th) – even relegated Southampton managed to get more (3).

For those who owned more than one Newcastle defensive asset, this period of the season was an extremely frustrating time. So, what happened?

Underlying defensive data

Looking at the Opta Stats Sandbox, we can divide the season into two halves: GW1 – 21 and GW22 – 38. With the sharp decline of clean sheets, we could be forgiven for expecting to see a correlating reduction in underlying defensive statistics. But the reality is, Newcastle’s defensive prowess did not change much across the season.

For the first half of the season, Newcastle were ranked 3rd for Expected Goals Conceded per 90 minutes (0.93). In the second half of the season, they were still ranked 3rd with (1.18). When looking at shots conceded, the data shows Newcastle actually improved in the second half of the season, conceding 9.89 shots per 90 minutes after Gameweek 22 (ranked 4th best) compared to 10.55 in the first half of the season (ranked 5th best).

Tactical changes

Eddie Howe was one of the more predictable managers in terms of how he set up his team, and he maintained a consistent tactical approach all season. There is no evidence of a significant strategic shift which could have contributed to the sudden decline in clean sheets. Using Opta Player Heatmaps, we can see there is little-to-no change in the average positioning of the defensive players in either half of the season.

Some may point to periods of absence from one of Newcastle’s most influential players, Bruno Guimarães, but there is little correlation between his absence and the drop in clean sheets.

What then?

As is often the case in football, sometimes there is no single cause which we can point the finger at, but a combination of small factors which conspire to have an impact. It would certainly appear that an increase in individual errors contributed to many instances when Newcastle lost a clean sheet. Luck is an ever-present factor in football so the question can be asked, were they just unlucky to lose so many clean sheets (or, if you want to flip the question on its head, were they lucky in the first half?)?

Another likely factor is that Newcastle’s Premier League attention was diverted to the prospect of silverware in a domestic cup competition. Eddie Howe, although brushing off the possibility beforehand, later admitted that the players’ focus on the EFL Cup Final contributed to a drop off in their Premier League form:

Conclusion

There is no reason to believe that Newcastle’s clean sheet drought will continue next season. The underlying data shows they were defensively consistent throughout the season so, if you are going to avoid Newcastle defensive assets, then do so because of the difficult fixtures, not the lack of clean sheets at the end of last season.

The pricing of Newcastle defensive assets has been interesting. A £1.5m increase is probably justified for Kieran Trippier given his prolific form and uncanny ability to create high-quality chances from the fullback position. But with popular premium assets such as Trent Alexander-Arnold at £8.0m, and Erling Haaland at £14.0m, managers could shy away from investing too much of their budget at the back.

Sven Botman remains a cheap avenue into the Newcastle defence at just £4.5m. Elite XI manager, Craig (Copenhagen Wednesday) believes he is amongst the best of the budget defensive picks but the difficult opening fixtures are likely to make this a difficult decision and perhaps keeping these assets on your watchlist is the way to go.

Check out the Elite XI: Team Reveal by clicking HERE.

By Matt Whelan