Last season, when Ivan Toney admitted to 232 breaches of the Football Association’s Betting Code, the FPL community braced themselves for the lengthy absence of one of the game’s most popular FPL assets.

The 27-year-old forward was having arguably the best season of his career, having scored 20 goals in 33 Premier League appearances and racked up 182 FPL points, making him one of the top-scoring forwards in the game.

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Toney’s ability to hit the back of the net accounted for 37% of Brentford’s goals last season, making his status as Brentford’s talisman beyond argument – for comparison only Erling Haaland (39.1%) and Harry Kane (41.5%) have a higher share of their respective clubs’ goal tally.

Now that justice has been meted by the FA, we now know that Toney will not be eligible to play another Premier League game until January 17, 2024 (Gameweek 22). So, the question remains, who will fill this void?

Mbeumo To Step Up?

It is not easy to assess the impact Toney’s absence will have on the squad, as there is little data to go by. Toney has started the vast majority of Premier League games – 109 of 120 – and so we can only analyse a small data sample.

Clearly, his absence will have a negative impact on the squad’s prospects; The Bees have won 46, drawn 33, and lost 30 matches when Toney has started (1.57 PL points per game) versus 1.36 PL points per game without him.

It would seem, however, that Thomas Frank’s men coped better last season, than in previous years, and a large part of that was Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m) stepping up to fill the gap, bagging goals in Brentford’s wins against West Ham and Liverpool, and their draw against Forest.

Using the advanced filters in our Opta Player Heatmaps tool, we can assess Mbeumo’s underlying numbers with and without Toney on the pitch.

As we can see from the data, Mbeumo’s attacking prowess (per 90) increased hugely in Toney’s absence. In particular with goals scored, an almost three-fold increase. His expected goals (xG) data more than doubled, showing that the quality of chances had improved, and he had almost double the number of shots on target.

What about Wissa?

It was not just the Cameroon international who took on the burden of Toney’s absence. Teammate Yoane Wissa (£6.0m) also bagged 4 goals and an assist in the five games he played without Toney.

Likewise, his stats are equally impressive when Toney is not around.

Out Of Position (OOP)

Interestingly, both players have been reclassified by Fantasy Premier League (FPL) this season. Mbeumo has been changed to a midfielder and Wissa will be a forward going into the 2023/24 campaign.

If we accept that both players should increase their goal output, then this swings the pendulum heavily in favour of Mbeumo who will receive an extra point per goal over his teammate Wissa, as well as a point for clean sheets which Wissa won’t get.

Indeed, many expect Wissa will play deeper than Mbeumo, making his new role a ‘reverse OOP’, something which is usually best avoided in FPL.

Fixtures

If you are considering an attacking asset from Brentford, then you can sleep comfortably in the knowledge that their fixtures are amongst the kindest for the opening six Gameweeks.

An opening game against Spurs may not be the best start but that is quickly followed by Fulham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. According to the Fixture Planner, this makes Brentford the fourth-best team to target when it comes to attacking fixtures.

Conclusion

With fixtures on their side, Brentford’s attacking assets provide a solid option for your Gameweek 1 squad. The true impact of Toney’s absence will be felt next season and therefore, it may be advisable to only go with one Brentford asset.

If you fancy a differential option, and would like to save £0.5m of your budget while you are at it, then take a chance on Wissa.

If you are focused on best value for money, then it would seem Mbeumo is in a better position to provide FPL returns for just slightly more.

By Matt Whelan

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