Cunha vs João Pedro: The Budget Forward Battle in Fantasy Premier League

As Fantasy Premier League managers, we're always on the lookout for those budget-friendly gems that can make a significant impact on our teams.

In recent gameweeks, two names that have been catching the eye of savvy FPL managers are Wolverhampton Wanderers' Matheus Cunha and Brighton & Hove Albion's João Pedro.

Let's dive into the statistics and analyse why these Brazilian forwards might be the perfect additions to your FPL squad.

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Matheus Cunha

Matheus Cunha has been in sensational form for Wolves in the 2024/25 season, highlighted by a 16-point haul in his last match against Fulham. The Opta Heatmaps tool reveals he’s averaging 6.3 points per game, making him excellent value at £7.0m.

With 7 goals this season, Cunha has proven to be a reliable source of points for FPL managers. However, his goal tally exceeds his expected goals (xG) of 3.23, suggesting he’s been highly clinical—though this overperformance might not last.

Cunha’s attacking stats are impressive. He’s taken 35 shots, with 13 on target, according to his Opta Shot Map, showing his consistent threat in front of goal. Beyond scoring, Cunha has contributed creatively, with 3 assists and 9 big chances created. His expected assists (xA) of 4.25 suggests he might have been unlucky not to provide even more returns.

Currently selected by 17% of FPL managers, Cunha is no longer a differential. According to the Transfer Analytics tool, over 574,289 managers have brought him in ahead of Gameweek 13, making him the most transferred-in player of the week.

Looking ahead, Wolves have favourable fixtures against Bournemouth (H), Everton (A), West Ham (A), Ipswich Town (H), and Leicester (A). The Fixture Analyser tool rates Wolves second only to Leicester for attacking difficulty during this period, highlighting Cunha’s potential to maintain his form.

João Pedro

João Pedro has impressed for Brighton in his second season, delivering 4 goals in just 370 minutes over 6 games. He’s outperformed his xG of 2.31, though this overperformance could regress.

Despite limited minutes, João Pedro has been clinical. According to his Opta Shot Map, he’s taken 9 shots, with 5 on target, and two-thirds of his efforts have come from inside the box—showing his knack for getting into dangerous positions.

João Pedro also contributes creatively, with 2 assists and 3 big chances created. His xA of 1.48, tracked in the Opta Stats Sandbox tool, suggests he’s slightly overperforming in this area too.

Owned by 13% of managers, João Pedro has seen a transfer surge, with 375,445 managers bringing him in ahead of Gameweek 13.

The Transfer Analytics tool highlights that many are freeing funds by selling Haaland to reinvest elsewhere, such as in Salah.

Brighton’s fixtures include Southampton (H), Fulham (A), Leicester (H), Crystal Palace (H), and West Ham (A). The Fixture Analyser tool suggests these matches provide excellent opportunities for João Pedro to maintain his form, with the Seagulls sitting fifth for attacking difficulty.

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Comparing Cunha vs João Pedro: Per Game Stats

As the two Brazilians have played different numbers of games and minutes, we can use the Fix Comparison Matrix to compare their per-game stats for the 2024/25 season so far.

Comparison and Conclusion

When comparing Matheus Cunha and João Pedro, several factors stand out:

Playing Time
Cunha has played significantly more minutes (976) compared to João Pedro (370), mainly due to the latter's injuries. However, with Brighton boasting a plethora of attacking options, it could be argued that João Pedro's minutes are less secure than Cunha's moving forward.

Goal Threat
While Cunha has scored more goals (7 vs 4), João Pedro has been more efficient, achieving his tally in fewer minutes and with fewer shots.

Price
João Pedro is the cheaper option at £5.6m compared to Cunha's £7.0m, potentially allowing greater flexibility in other areas of your squad.

Fixtures
Both players have a decent run of upcoming fixtures, with neither having a clear advantage in this area.

Conclusion
Both Matheus Cunha and João Pedro present compelling cases as budget forward options in FPL. Cunha offers more consistent playing time and a higher ceiling for attacking returns but comes at a higher price. João Pedro, despite limited playing time so far, has shown excellent efficiency and could be a shrewd pick if his minutes become more secure.

Your choice between the two may depend on your team structure and budget constraints. If you can afford Cunha, his reliable playing time and all-round attacking threat make him an attractive option. However, if you need to free up funds for other areas of your team, João Pedro’s efficiency and lower price point could make him the ideal choice.

If your FPL season could use a boost, we’ve got an exclusive Black Friday offer for you:

👉 Get Premium Plus for the rest of the 2024/25 season for a one-time payment of £9.95 (saving you £37.75).