Historically one of the most consistent performers – not to mention, reliable sources of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points – Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) has often been a much sought after premium asset in our squads.

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His five-year average FPL points total (if we exclude the 2018/19 season where he missed most of the season through injury) is 196. Just shy of the 200-point barrier, widely considered to be an excellent season. In the last eight years he has scored 64 goals and bagged 113 assists!

But this season, despite a significant price drop from £12.5m to £10.5m, he is only owned by 7% of FPL managers. In this article, we ask if FPL managers are sleeping on a killer asset, or are they right to exclude the Belgian playmaker from their plans?

Pre-season niggles and reduced minutes

Perhaps the primary reason for the lack of enthusiasm for De Bruyne is the danger of his reduced minutes. Pep Roulette is an ever-present threat which needs to be navigated when we punt on Manchester City players, however, one of the aspects which stood firmly in favour of De Bruyne, was he was viewed as being amongst that rare group of players who were considered to be nailed on, although this view is starting to change.

In the 2022/23 season, De Bruyne was the fourth-highest Manchester City player in terms of number of minutes played (2,425) according to Opta Stats Sandbox. However, these minutes were stacked in the first half of the season. Of the total played, only 1,023 were in the second half of the season.

There was an 8-day period in late April 2023 where the 32-year-old was officially injured with a bruised foot, but it is widely felt that this injury was being managed beyond this period, with many speculating that the problem is indeed more long term than anyone in the Manchester City camp is willing to admit.

It is worthy of note that De Bruyne has been an unused substitute for City’s last two pre-season friendlies against Bayern Munich and Yokohama F. Marinos. For the sum of £10.5m, these are big question marks FPL managers do not want hanging over their squads.

Value

An important aspect of squad management is to assess player value. Using our favourite metric for measuring value – Value Added Per Million (VAPM) – we compiled a list of the most valuable players based on last season’s points and this season’s pricing – click here for the full list.

As you can see, De Bruyne is nowhere to be found on that list. In fact, despite a dramatic price reduction, the midfielder only ranks 58th on the list. At his current level of returns, he does not represent good value at that price point.

Fixtures

For all the reasons against including De Bruyne in your Gameweek 1 squad, fixture difficulty is not amongst them.

Manchester City have a fantastic run of opening fixtures, playing newly promoted sides twice in the first three Gameweeks. Beyond this, only a home game against Newcastle, and an away match against West Ham, are likely to pose any difficulties.

Isolated Price Bracket

Another factor to consider is De Bruyne’s price point. At £10.5m, he is somewhat isolated on a ‘price island’ of his own. He cannot be used as a placeholder for Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) who is a good £2m more expensive. At the same time he locks up much needed budget which could be spent on midfielders in the next price bracket down, such as Son Heung-min (£9.0m) and Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) who are significantly cheaper.

Predicted Points

Despite the above, the Algorithm still rates Kevin De Bruyne highly. The Player Points Projections tool has him ranked as the 9th best player (across all positions) in terms of predicted points over the first six Gameweeks.

This is particularly impressive given the fact that he is showing as flagged for Gameweek 1, meaning his total projected points are penalised compared to the other players.

Conclusion

Taking into account all these factors, the reluctance of managers to bring De Bruyne into their teams is totally justified. While we all know what the Belgian superstar is capable of, he is not an easy asset to place in our teams without making huge sacrifices elsewhere.

Questions around his minutes, and speculation around his injury, all add fuel to the fire in the argument against his inclusion. With so many fantastic midfield options available this year, it is almost impossible to make a strong case to have him in Gameweek 1.

The constraints that his price point puts on our squad structure means that even if De Bruyne starts getting regular minutes, he will not be an easy player to bring in, unless you start with Salah and are willing to part ways with the Egyptian King.

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By Matt Whelan

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