When it comes to candidates for the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) ‘Hall of Fame’, a name that instantly springs to mind is Mohamed Salah (£12.5m). The Egyptian King is the only player (ever!) to break the 300-point barrier, which he achieved in the 2017/18 season, after scoring a staggering 32 goals and bagging 12 assists from midfield.

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Any player who scores over 200 points in a season will usually find themselves in the top 10 of the highest-scoring FPL assets. Scoring over 250 points is considered an abnormally good season – see Erling Haaland (£12.5m) who earned 272 points in his record-breaking season last year.

Yet Mo Salah’s average points return over the last six seasons is 255; a mind-blowing level of consistency. The Liverpool winger’s lowest points total in that period was 231 (in the 2020/21 season), which is still significantly higher than any other midfield asset from last season.

Despite this, Salah is owned by just over 25% of FPL managers. A recent survey revealed that over 64% of highly engaged managers on Twitter are considering going without the Egyptian King. This blog looks at the reasons why many have excluded Salah from their initial drafts, despite his pristine record.

Erling Haaland

The #1 reason that so many managers are looking to start the campaign without Salah is the emergence of a new perma-captain. It did not take a genius to work out that the signing of the Norwegian superhuman, to a team which creates as many chances as Manchester City was a match made in heaven.

Haaland broke Premier League records in his debut season, bagging 36 goals and 9 assists for a team who were joint-top for Big Chances Created (103), top for xA (77.10), and who played more successful final-third passes (5,644) than any other team. Scary, when you consider that the 22-year-old is only in the early days of his career.

At the time of writing, 85.8% of FPL managers are seemingly unblinking at the Manchester City forward’s £14.0m price tag, with many considering him as a permanent candidate for the captain’s armband. Perhaps never before have we had such a devastating forward option to rely on for captaincy, and this is probably the largest contributing factor to the reduction of Salah’s appeal.

Poor Value

An important aspect of squad management is to assess player value. Using our favourite metric for measuring value – Value Added Per Million (VAPM) – we compiled a list of the most valuable players based on last season’s points and this season’s pricing – click here for the full list.

Despite huge price rises, Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Harry Kane (£12.5m) made 8th and 12th on the list, respectively. Salah, however, was not to be seen. In fact, Salah places 40th on the list and so misses out by a significant margin. Despite (once again) being the top-scoring midfielder, the fact remains that Salah does not represent great value.

Liverpool’s ‘Wobble’

Another factor undoubtedly will be Liverpool’s poor (relatively speaking) season, in which they narrowly missed out on Champions League football, something of an anomaly during Jürgen Klopp’s impressive reign.

Had Liverpool secured a season more in character with previous campaigns, the decision may be a lot more difficult for us FPL managers. But caution is needed in jumping to this conclusion as Liverpool greatly improved towards the end of last season. Since Gameweek 21, according to Opta Stats Sandbox, they were 3rd for goals scored (41), second for xG (40.82), and they generated more FPL points (1,065) than any other team.

Fixtures

While Salah is capable of returns against any rival, he is less likely to produce a haul against tougher opposition. Using the Fixture Planner, we can take a look at Liverpool’s schedule in terms of attacking difficulty.

With a less-than-ideal opening fixture against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and a semi-tricky block of games between Gameweeks 3-5, Liverpool’s opening run, while not terrible, is not exactly begging us to target their assets, although their Gameweek 2 fixture against Bournemouth offers a solid opportunity to put the armband on Salah.

Impact Of Díaz’s Return

Another thing to consider is the return of Luis Díaz (£8.0m) to the Liverpool squad and the potential impact this will have on Salah. Anecdotally, there is some debate amongst Liverpool fans as to whether Salah’s positioning and the tactical set-up of the squad inhibits Salah’s performance when his Colombian teammate is on the pitch.

Using the Opta Player Heatmaps tool, we are able to analyse Salah’s performance with (left) and without (right) Luis Díaz on the pitch. What is clear, is that Salah’s positioning without his fellow winger is less confined to the flanks, with a higher amount of activity shown both centrally and, in the box, when Díaz is absent.

In terms of the stats, Salah’s goal output is dramatically reduced when Díaz plays. Salah was averaging 0.63 goals per 90 minutes, as opposed to 0.27 (less than half) when Díaz is around. In fact, across most metrics for underlying goal threat, Salah underperforms when Díaz plays, although this is somewhat mitigated by a corresponding increase in creative numbers; Salah almost doubled the rate of assists (per 90) – from 0.54 with Díaz, to 0.23 without.

Conclusion

With all the above taken into account, the question remains; do we go without Salah?

Ironically, one of the biggest reasons to go without Salah (his price) also represents one of the biggest dangers of not starting with him. If Salah – as he has done in previous seasons – scores big in the opening games, then his price point will prohibit us from bringing him into our squads without a significant restructure, something we could all do without in those initial Gameweeks.

At £12.5m, there is no other midfielder who comes close. Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) is £2m cheaper and could potentially miss out on the start of the season with injury. The next reasonable price bracket in midfield features the likes of Marcus Rashford (£9.0m) and Son Heung-min (£9.0m) and therefore a move from one of these players to ‘upgrade’ to Salah, will require the acquisition of £3.5m in additional funds. Far from a simple switch.

What this means is that owning Salah could actually be something of a ‘differential’ in the opening Gameweeks, as those who start without him, can’t get to him easily. So, what this all comes down to is a simple question: what can managers do with the extra budget?

With so many strong mid-priced options in both defence and midfield this season, picking the right combination of players early on will make the difference. Even if Salah starts strong, the way FPL managers spread their extra budget will be key in competing with – or even getting ahead of – those who started with the Egyptian King.

By Matt Whelan

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