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In this blog, we review when and how the top Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers made their transfers. Transfers are a crucial resource for all FPL managers. Each Gameweek allows for one free transfer, and an additional transfer can be rolled over if none is used. However, any extra transfers beyond the free ones cost four points each.
The data indicates that the most successful managers preferred to wait as late as possible to make their transfers. For the ‘All Time Top 50’ and ‘Top 50’ groups, Saturday before the deadline was the preferred day. The ‘All FPL’ group showed the most activity on Friday, but their transfer activity was more spread across the week compared to the more successful groups.
There are three benefits to delaying transfers until the end of the week:
Injury and Rotation Updates: Waiting allows managers to account for mid-week matches where players might get injured or may be more likely to be rotated in the next league game.
Press Conference Insights: Most teams schedule their press conferences on Thursday or Friday, providing up-to-date information on injuries and potential rotations.
Fixture Postponements: Given the recent trend of fixture postponements in the last few seasons, waiting until Friday or Saturday maximises the time available for these occurrences to be confirmed.
The ‘Top 50’ user group often missed out on price rises 60% of the time for their transfers, an increase of 20.3% from the 2022/23 season. Similarly, the ‘All Time Top 50’ group missed out on price rises 70.3% of the time, a 25.5% increase from the previous season. This indicates that they prioritised midweek fixtures, press conferences, and potential postponements over chasing price rises. Additionally, with FPL player prices becoming cheaper, there is less need to chase price rises compared to previous seasons.
A similar pattern is observed for price falls. Over 35% of the time, both successful groups were willing to endure a price fall for a player. Only 14.7% of the ‘Top 50’ and 17.8% of the ‘All Time Top 50’ sold players before a price fall, again highlighting their preference to wait for the latest information.
The data shows that all three groups preferred players with ownership between 0-20%, indicating that low-ownership differentials continue to be a key strategy for success in FPL. This also suggests that the core of the ‘template team’ remained consistent, with players like Palmer, Saka, and Haaland being highly owned throughout the season. The fringe players were the ones most frequently transferred in and out.
For the two groups of successful managers, the most common previous Gameweek score of the player transferred in was just two points. The second-most popular choice scored one point the previous week. This indicates that these managers were not deterred by poor FPL returns in the previous Gameweek. They likely considered factors such as underlying statistics and upcoming fixtures when making transfer decisions.
Injuries were a more prevalent factor this season, with 40.1% of the ‘Top 50’ managers selling injured or doubtful players. In contrast, the previous season saw approximately 75% of transfers out being players who were fit to play, indicating that injuries played a lesser role.
The graphs indicate that the ‘All Time Top 50’ took more hits than the ‘Top 50’ group. Between five (‘Top 50’) and seven (‘All Time Top 50’) hits were most common among both groups of successful managers. Gameweek 28 saw the most points hits, likely because Bournemouth and Luton had two fixtures. Managers potentially saw it as a worthwhile investment to bring in extra players from these teams.
This analysis suggests that successful Fantasy Premier League managers tend to delay transfers for the most up-to-date information, favour differentials, and are strategic about taking points hits.
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