Greetings once again from Australia, home of the planet's biggest and best sporting events, but some of the worst fantasy football analysts.

As we engage the home straight of what has been a memorable season 2014/15 (miserable for some), I finally concede that it is time for me to put the cue in the rack on my usual “fantasy spotlight”. Those prepared to admit they actually took heed of any of my advice will know that I did my best to shine the spotlight on the forgotten men of fantasy football: those deserted by the very "football fantasisers" on whose bedroom walls their photos once stood proud; those in respect of whom effigies are now burnt across the globe. Once loved, now maligned. From "must haves" to "differentials". The very scapegoats towards whom online expletives, vitriol, and downright hatred are targeted when that dreaded red arrow (the scourge of fantasy football) graces our webpages.

For the sake of clarity, let’s call them the “Forgotten Men”.

Feel free to trawl through the FFFix Archives to assess my performance. Actually, don’t…

The bottom line my friends is that the Forgotten Men are indeed forgotten for a reason. No amount of promotion and statistical engineering was ever likely to bring back Sturridge to match fitness, for example, despite my best efforts. Perhaps a stint as a PR Manager would be a better calling for me. Or a Lawyer (oh, wait, I’m already one), as it appears I can BS with the best of them and make a case and create a “feel good” story for just about any mug. Heck, I even justified Steven Caulker’s recent performances.

But, among the debris, a flicker of hope emerges. Recall the following passage from my last post some 4 weeks ago:

“…the one key take-out I recall from season 2013/14 of fantasy football is that points hauls can appear somewhat cyclical, particularly at the front-end and back-ends of the season. In other words, players who perform well at the start of the season generally lull during the middle parts of the season (whether because of injury or form) but then finish strongly. On this basis, think Sturridge, Sigurdsson, Rooney, Ramsey, Baines, Benteke et al for 2014/15. What the above also means, if the proposition indeed holds true, is that “ghost teams” may dominate scoring for the last 7 weeks of season 2014/15. Funnily enough, we’re already starting to see signs of this as the likes of Rooney, Benteke and Sigurdsson come into form after having relatively quiet middle periods of the season, following strong starts. The fact Everton kept a clean sheet over the weekend (probably the first in about 20 gameweeks!) reinforces the proposition in my view: in fact, this is the test of statistical significance on which econometricians rely to confirm a base hypothesis! No further correspondence need be entered in relation thereto…”

And sure enough, truer words have not ever been spoken. What appeared a cyclical phenomenon is now a statistical reality.

To close out season 2014/15 on a high and push those 11^th hour claims to mini-league and/or worldwide fantasy footballing glory, one needs to look no further than the “ghost teams” for advice and inspiration.

Let me explain.

What is a “ghost team”?

In essence, a ghost team is one which is still registered (among the 3.5 million or so players worldwide!) but where the fantasy manager put the cue in rack long ago. In fact, a long long time ago. Probably after a dismal performance in GW 5. If you’re in any doubt as to whether or not ghost teams exist, trawl down to the bottom of your mini-league table…

How can we identify a ghost team?

Ghost teams typically exhibit the following indicia at this stage of the season:

·        Low overall rank (usually greater than 1,500,000 overall)

·        Few total transfers (typically less than 15)

·        Low team value (typically less than 100m)

·        Injured or non-starting players remaining in the squad (and who probably still have Yohan Cabaye!).

So why do we care about the ghost teams?

Why do we care? Because, my friends, they’re absolutely smashing the rest of us hardworking managers out of the park at the moment. In fact, it’s not even close. Again, trawl down to the bottom of your mini-league table. Notice how they’ve been outdoing you in recent weeks, despite your blood, sweat and tears over whether or not to hit the “confirm” button????

What if I told you that the highest overall score in the world for each of gameweeks 32 to 34 was achieved by a ghost team?

Specifically:

·        GW 34: Team ranked 1.6 million overall; 5 transfers all season. Team value 97.9m

·        GW 33: Team ranked 1.9 million overall; 16 transfers all season. Team value 96m

·        GW 32: Team ranked 1.6 million overall; 8 transfers all season. Team value 98.4m.

I’ve purposefully and rightly excluded GW 31 because it was a double gameweek, in which (unsurprisingly) it is less likely for ghost teams to do well, given the high probability that such teams would not have doubled up on DGW players. Indeed, who would have had double QPR or Villa at the start of the season???

So what do we put this all down to?

The answer is quite simple. Players who performed quite well at start of season (for say the first 5 or 6 weeks) and were thus generally included in a high percentage of teams at that time of the season, have recaptured that form towards the end of the season: elaborating even further, those players who, whether due to injury or form, saw little action in actively-managed fantasy teams during the middle periods of the season and have therefore missed out on the recent return to form.

Take note of the following by way of illustration:

·        Aaron Ramsey: 10 points in GW 1, 9 points in GW 2, followed by injury. His first 90 minute game since returning from injury was GW 29, in which he amassed 14 points, followed by 11 points in GW 32, and 12 points in GW 35. This is manna from heaven for a ghost team.

·        Christian Benteke: After his performances in 2013/14, Benteke was heavily picked at the start of the 2014/15 season. Unfortunately, injury meant he didn’t play a full match until GW 9, by which time a number of “ghost teams” had taken effect, meaning that he hasn’t been moved from a substantial number of teams. Active players had well and truly moved him on by then. His recent performances, though, have been phenomenal: 12 points in GW 28, 13 in GW 29, 23 in GW 31, 13 in GW 35.

·        Gylfi Sigurdsson: The darling of August 2014. Opening the season with two double-digit performances in the first 3 GWs (13 points in GW 1, 11 in GW 3), Siggy was always going to be a permanent fixture for many a ghost team. After some indifferent performances during the middle period of the season (only registering one double-digit performance between GWs 8 and 33), Siggy returned to life in GW 34 with a 13 point haul.

So what’s the advice?

Simple. Load up on the “ghost teams”! Certainly the above-mentioned players warrant urgent attention, but I’d also strongly suggest considering the following, all of whom had good starts to the season before fading somewhat (whether through injury or otherwise) and falling out of love (and perhaps waiting for “blue_moon’s fantasy spotlight” to deliver salvation), but have since shown glimpses of a return to form (and more importantly, fantasy points!):

 ·        Leighton Baines

·        Steven Gerrard

·        Graziano Pelle

·        Laurent Koscielny

·        Steven Naismith

·        Wayne Rooney.

Indeed, a quick trawl through the annuls of 2014/15 might reveal some hidden surprises in keeping with the above. Lukaku anyone?

As that mad dash for differentials and a competitive advantage over our mini-league rivals reaches its crescendo for 2014/15, the answer may well lie in the spirits (whoops, “ghosts”). Who you gonna call?

Now, before you think I’ve completely lost the plot, let me wish you the best of luck, and promptly arrange my hasty exit…

Cheers,

blue_moon (@Yazbeckistan)