Well… Gameweek 10 didn’t go to plan, unless you owned Reece James of course! Salah became the highest owned and highest captained played in FPL history, Manchester City lost to Crystal Palace at home, and United battered Spurs resulting in a Nuno sacking, with Conte replacing him. Never a dull moment in the Premier League, so let’s get to the myth-busting! This week we'll have a look at:
Son Heung-Min will be on a lot of manager's watchlists.
A dismal display from Tottenham vs Manchester United at the weekend brought the four month reign of Nuno Espirito Santo to an end. It hasn’t taken Daniel Levy long to bring in a replacement either: Antonio Conte, the man who led Chelsea to the 2016/17 Premier League title is on his way to White Hart Lane. It is widely expected in the football community that the appointment of Conte will mean an immediate change of fortunes for Spurs, and a massive upturn in form, therefore is it essential for FPL managers to jump on the likes of Son and Kane early?
The obvious thing to look into with regards to the upcoming Spurs run is not only the incoming manager, but also the fixtures. According to our attacking Fixture Analyser Spurs have the best run of games between Gameweek 11 and 15, facing Everton, Leeds, Burnley, Brentford, and Norwich. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, should Spurs go on to score a large number of goals in the next 5 games. It’s likely even under Nuno they may have won or challenged during these fixtures.
Spurs were in a similar position during the 2019/20 season, where Mauricio Pochettino was fired after 12 Gameweeks with Spurs languishing in 14th place. Jose Mourinho then took over and guided Spurs to a 6th place finish. Despite the fact that Spurs were 14th after 12 games, there was no clear upturn in the form of Spurs’ key player's Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. When analysing Son between Gameweeks 1 to 12 and 13 to 24 (Pochettino’s final 12 games vs Mourinho’s first 12) the data is nearly identical, with Son picking up 1 extra point in 6 less minutes under Pochettino.
With regards to jumping on Spurs assets now, I am personally looking to double up on Son and Kane, but this is mainly down to those gorgeous fixtures rather than the new manager in Conte. Of course, Spurs are a ‘wait and see’ with regards to assets outside of those two key players. Matt Doherty, Emerson Royal, Sergio Reguilon, Dele Alli or Lucas Moura could become incredible value depending on the system deployed.
I am certainly going to claim that this one is fact! Those fixtures can’t be ignored and if there is also a ‘new manager bounce’ coupled with those fixtures... Son & Kane could run riot!
Heung-Min Son 2019/20 stats for Gameweeks 1-12 under Pochettino vs 13-24 stats under Mourinho using Player Heatmaps
Reece James is currently the most transferred in player for this Gameweek
After another dominant display, Chelsea top the table by 3 points after 10 games. The Blues have conceded only 3 goals in that time, keeping an impressive 7 clean sheets in the process. This brings about the question of whether or not Chelsea defenders are essential. Of course, where a defence is keeping clean sheets in 70% of their matches we need to seriously consider a double-up or even a triple-up. This becomes even more essential given Chelsea’s top 2 scorers this season are the attacking wing-backs in Reece James and Ben Chilwell, despite the fact they have played less than half of Chelsea’s minutes so far.
Chelsea currently have the 2nd best defence in the division based on expected goals conceded, however their xGC value is 9.64, so the 3 goals they have conceded is a massive over-achievement. This is potentially down to luck, but could also be down to their fantastic goalkeeper Edouard Mendy who has saved points for them on a number of occasions so far this season. I think that a slight improvement of goals conceded compared to xGC is anticipated where a side have a world class keeper, but 3 goals allowed rather than 9.64 is clearly just variance and will likely start to even out as the season goes on.
Given that Reece James & Ben Chilwell have scored 4 & 3 goals from an xG of 1 and 0.62 respectively, and have played less than half of Chelsea’s minutes, I personally will not be rushing to bring them in ASAP. Especially with a tricky run of games coming up between Gameweeks 12-15 (Leicester, Man United, Watford, and West Ham). I am personally happy owning just Antonio Rudiger currently and will move to Ben Chilwell if I ever get the chance to make a sideways change. With that in mind, I am going to say that it is fixtion that we need a Chelsea defensive double-up or triple-up!
Chelsea defender's xFPL vs FPL points using Opta Stats Sandbox
After another fine display from the young Englishman, many are touting Aaron Ramsdale as the new Emi Martinez: a keeper who started the season as a very kind price of £4.5m and is currently averaging 5.57 points per game, second to only Edouard Mendy at Chelsea. This was his biggest points haul of the season though, gaining 10 points in Arsenal’s 2-0 away victory vs Leicester. Given that Leicester had an xG of 1.83, it is clear to see why Aaron Ramsdale won man of the match with 8 saves, including a world class double save that is likely to win save of the season!
Of goalkeepers with 3+ appearances so far this season, Aaron Ramsdale has the 2nd highest FPL points per game and the 4th highest xFPL per game behind Ederson, Sa, and Mendy. Compared to keepers valued at less than £5m, Ramsdale comes out on top of both FPL point metrics, and also has the 2nd lowest xGC behind only Raya of Brentford, who is now likely out for majority of the season. He has achieved these numbers despite having 8 other keepers, all priced lower than £5m, having less shots taken at them per game. This is the dream combination in FPL for any keeper: low price, high chance of a clean sheet, and lots of save points. It simply doesn’t get much better than that!
Projected points for goalkeepers Gameweeks 11-18 using Projected Points & Stats
Arsenal have improved their defence with the signings of White, Tomiyasu, and Ramsdale, after already having had the 4th best defence in the league in 2020/21 based on xGC. In recent weeks, since Ramsdale’s debut, Arsenal have the 5th best defence in the league of this current season. Given that Aaron Ramsdale is predicted to score the 4th most points for any keeper in FPL between Gameweeks 11 to 18, despite playing Liverpool and Manchester United away, I am going to say it is 100% fact that he is the best goalkeeper in FPL.
What a start the Ivorian has made to his time at Burnley! In only 5 games, Cornet has picked up 4 goals and 32 FPL points. Of players with over 250 minutes played, Cornet is 3rd behind Reece James and Ben Chilwell for points per 90. Despite playing as a left-back for most of last season at Lyon, Cornet has been deployed as a striker next to Chris Wood in their 4-4-2 formation. In homage to the old school strike forces of Quinn & Keane, Viduka & Smith, and Hateley & McCoist, Burnley are attempting the big man and little man duo up top. Cornet is getting a lot of chances in and around the box, not only due to flick-ons, but also because Wood is taking up the attention of the opposition defenders.
Midfielders £6.0m or below sorted by xG per 90 using Opta Stats Sandbox
Of all midfielders priced £6m or less, Cornet has the 2nd highest xG90 stat, which is of course fantastic. The worry for me is the creative side of the game, where Cornet ranks 37th for xA90 below the likes of Ruben Neves, Declan Rice, Douglas Luiz and N’Golo Kante, who are predominantly deployed as defensive midfielders. The most impressive stat in my opinion is his xFPL90 of 6.4, as this blows the rest of the £6m or less midfielders out of the water! Trincao is in 2nd place with a xFPL90 stat of 5.57.
Although he has started the season in fine form, I am going to say that Maxwel Cornet being the best option for a cheap midfielder in FPL is fixtion. We just don’t have a big enough sample size yet to know, however, he is certainly a viable option when Burnley have a good run of games!
West Ham have started the season in fine form, sitting in 4th place after 10 games with 6 wins under their belts too. Antonio & Benrahma got a lot of love early on in the season after great displays in the first 2 games vs Newcastle and Leicester, in which West Ham scored 8 goals. One thing that has gone slightly under the radar is the solid defensive stats that West Ham are putting up, especially since the major summer signing of Kurt Zouma from Chelsea.
Ownership of WHUFC defensive assets among the top 100k using FPL Statistics on the mobile app.
Within the top 100k of FPL managers, only 9.1% own a West Ham defensive asset. Given that West Ham have kept only 3 clean sheets, this seems understandable. However, West Ham have the 4th lowest xGC in the Premier League with 10.72, only 1.08 behind a Chelsea defence that have kept 7 clean sheets. Similarly, since Gameweek 6 and the emergence of Kurt Zouma, West Ham have the lowest xGC in the division, including giving up an xG of only 0.62 vs Spurs in a London derby and an xG of only 0.6 away at Goodison Park in another 1-0 win.
When you factor in the attacking stats of a player like Aaron Cresswell, who has the 4th most crosses in the league amongst defenders, the 4th most runs into the final third, and the 3rd most passes in the opposition third. When a decent run of games comes along, a West Ham defender should definitely be on your watchlist, so it is fact that you should be considering West Ham defenders.
Luke Boarer
@FPLIrons
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