Leicester have had a mixed run of results with two draws, two wins and a loss in the last five matches. They come up against a Chelsea side that has dropped just two points over the last five matches and our Fix Algorithm backs the London side to secure a 2-0 away win.
A look at the last five game player statistics reveal that Vardy's influence on the Foxes is waning. Even though he has scored two goals, he has notched just 0.9 Expected Goals (xG) over the last five games and landed just three shots on target (SoT). His creative numbers are poor as well, with just three chances created. Tielemans has played a huge role, the Belgian is top for goals (two), SoT (six) and attempted assists (14) but is currently a major doubt for this game due to injury.
Chelsea's English contingent of Chilwell, James and Mount have shouldered the goal scoring burden in Lukaku's absence with three goals each. R. James in particular has posted impressive numbers with 10 chances created and the wingbacks continue to merit investment despite their fixture run getting trickier.
Liverpool will be looking to get back to winning ways after a loss against West Ham and they face a buoyant Arsenal side that has picked up 11 points in the last five matches. As expected, Salah dominates all the attacking number for the Merseyside outfit, the Egyptian is top for goals (five), xG (2.6), SoT (nine), assists (five) and attempted assists (10).
Jota's numbers are also worth a look. The Portugal international has started just three of the last five matches but is now set for an extended spell in the side with Firmino out injured. He has registered an xG of 0.8 and attempted five assists over just 244 minutes which is very impressive. At just 7.5 in price he could be a shrewd acquisition.
Smith-Rowe has been the star of the show for Arsenal, scoring three goals over the last five matches. However, in terms of underlying numbers Aubameyang shines. The Gabonese international has registered a whopping 3.0 xG and seven SoT. Despite his penalty miss against Watford, Arteta has confirmed that he will continue to take spot kicks for the Gunners, and with many forwards currently misfiring, he could be one to look at.
Newcastle have appointed Howe as their new manager and the fixture against Brentford is a great opportunity for the Magpies to kick their season into gear. After a strong start, Brentford's campaign has stuttered a bit with four losses in their last five matches. Newcastle have also picked up just two points over the aforementioned period and our Fix Algorithm predicts a 1-1 draw in this game.
C. Wilson dominates the numbers for the home side, the striker is top for goals (two), xG (0.7) and SoT (two) and should benefit from his previous tenure with Howe at Bournemouth. With few other strikers firing and the Magpies enjoying a favourable fixture run, it could be a great time to bring in C. Wilson to take advantage of the new manager bounce.
Mbeumo's numbers have been poor, the midfielder has registered just 1.0 xG over the last five matches, but it is worth mentioning that he did miss one game due to injury. Toney's xG figures are even lower (0.7) which indicates that despite five SoT, he is not being afforded quality chances. In terms of creativity, they are hugely dependent on Jensen who has attempted 14 assists, however, they are likely to be without the Danish international for this game as he has been diagnosed with COVID. This is likely to have a negative effect on Toney and Mbeumo's prospects in this fixture.
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