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GW15 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 7 Nov. 2022

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

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Gabriel tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 15 with a score of 12.6. The centre-back was pivotal in keeping Chelsea out and scored his 'big chance' from close range. Salah scored from two of his three shots, two of which were 'big chances' and notched an xFPL score of 10.9. Perišić owners can count themselves extremely unlucky, the Croatian international playing out-of-position for large parts of the game, he attempted five assists and took three shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances'. He was joint-top of the creativity numbers this week alongside De Bruyne and Dewsbury-Hall (five each) who registered xFPL scores of 6.1 and 4.3 respectively. No player took more shots than Maddison (eight), the 25-year-old did not land any of these attempts on target but did attempt four assists as well which led to a xFPL score of 8.7.

The Emerging bandwagons

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As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Almirón tops the transfer charts ahead of gameweek 16, the Newcastle midfielder has been transferred in by nearly 200,000 managers already ahead of their game against Chelsea on the back of his eight-pointer against Southampton. Haaland is coming straight back in for the managers who got rid of the Norwegian international, he is likely going to be the most popular captaincy pick once again for the coming gameweek. Foden is the most sold player with nearly 200,000 transfers out after three consecutive one-pointers but it is perhaps surprising to see Cancelo in second, the Portuguese full-back will be available for gameweek 16 as he serves his one game suspension in the Carabao cup. Five of the top transfer combinations this week involve getting rid of Foden with De Bruyne, Trossard and Almirón the beneficiaries.