1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

The league’s top scorer Vardy is no. 1 in our Custom Stats xFPL table once again with a score of 12.0, indicating he could have had a much bigger haul against Villa. The Leicester striker took four shots in the box (SiB) and landed three shots on target (SoT), two of which were ‘big chances’. He also attempted two assists. Jota comes in second with an xFPL score of 11.6, the Portuguese took six SiB, the highest of any player this gameweek. He was also top for ‘big chances’ with three. De Bruyne was once again the week’s most creative player with five attempted assists and he also took three SiB. However, his xFPL score of only 5.3 indicates that these were not high quality opportunities. Salah showed glimpses of his best form from last season, the Egyptian landed four SoT and attempted four assists, registering an xFPL score of 10.5.

2. Red Devils on fire

Rashford and Martial both scored in gameweek 16 as Man. Utd beat the defending Champions at the Etihad and are popular transfers this week as per our Transfer Trends feature. The two are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature for the last six gameweeks, and given that Martial has missed a game, more attention is paid to the average statistics than the cumulative numbers. Rashford’s expected goals (xG) of 0.92 is over three times that of Martial’s, which indicates that he is getting better quality chances than the Frenchman despite being tied for average SoT. He even matches Martial for expected assists. The third-highest scoring asset in Fantasy Premier League with 101 points, Rashford has blanked just once in the last eight games, registering a whopping seven goals and three assists. He looks to be the Man. Utd attacker of choice for their kind run of fixtures which sees them ranked fourth in our Fixture Analyzer.

3. Invest in Palace defence? 

With three consecutive clean sheets, Palace have now taken their total to six for the season. Using the Stats Sandbox team statistics feature, their defensive numbers are compared over that period to the rest of the league. They are ranked fifth for xCS (expected clean sheets) with 1.12 but are eighth for xGC (expected goals conceded) with 3.58. These numbers would indicate that the clean sheets have been a bit lucky and the underlying numbers merit a closer look. They are ranked 10^th for SiB conceded (24), but second for the fewest SoT conceded (nine). They are also sixth-best for ‘big chances’ conceded with five. Overall, the numbers are impressive but the attacking deficiencies of the opponents they have faced have certainly played a part. Their defensive assets certainly merit investment, but to expect a similar output over the Christmas schedule is probably a step too far.