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GW19 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 24 Jan. 2021

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Stones tops the Custom Stats xFPL Table for gameweek 19 with a score of 18.5. The 26-year-old took a total of three shots in the box (SiB) and scored from both his shots on target (SoT). Mount and Mané were the week’s most creative players with 11 attempted assists each, notching xFPL scores of 10.8 and 7.8 respectively. No player took more shots than Gundogan (10), the German also attempted four assists, registering an xFPL score of 14.1. Antonio posted impressive numbers, the striker took four SiB, two of which were ‘big chances’ and attempted two assists, notching an xFPL score of 15.6.

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2. Coufal vs Cresswell

West Ham have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches and using the Fix Heatmaps feature, the numbers of their attacking full-backs Coufal and Cresswell are compared over the last three gameweeks. Cresswell boasts the greater goal threat with three shots compared to Coufal’s one and both are evenly matched for attempted assists with three each. However, Coufal beats Cresswell for expected assists 0.53 to 0.11 which indicates the Czech is creating chances of better quality. Both appear to be excellent picks and with a significantly cheaper price tag of 4.7 to Cresswell’s 5.4, it is clear that Coufal is offering better value.

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3. KDB replacements compared

With De Bruyne ruled out for a while due to a muscular injury, the popular replacement options are compared using the Fix Comparison Matrix for the last three gameweeks. Averages are used since certain players had an extra fixture. Gundogan leads the way for FPL points (7.5), goals (0.8), shots (3.8) and SoT (1.3). He beats Sterling for all the metrics except assists (0.3 to 0). Son’s average of two ‘big chances’ per game is more than the other four combined, the Korean is also second for attempted assists (2.3) and shots (2.7). Grealish leads the creative numbers with 3.3 attempted assists per match, but the fact that he has registered zero SoT and ‘big chances’ across his three matches is worrying. With Vardy out, the goal-scoring burden will increase for H. Barnes, and looking at the below, the Englishman has posted decent numbers, topping the comparison for SoT (1.3) and coming in second for ‘big chances’ (1.0). 

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