Well, GW1 was good fun! I personally scored 100 points, the Fantasy Football Fix Consensus XI scored 111, and the Algorithm XI scored 108. I don’t think we’ve ever had such a high scoring first week in FPL. Everybody is happy with their totals, but all these points bring questions, bandwagons and talking points! I am going to try and use Fantasy Football Fix data to prove if the following five topics are fact or fiction.

1. Never back the early kick off!
2. Paul Pogba is a bandwagon pick
3. Ismaila Sarr will sustain the level of performance shown vs Villa
4. It’s too early to jump on DCL
5. Salah struggles vs Burnley

Never back the early kick off!

Mo Salah vs Burnley at home kick offs gameweek 2, what could go wrong? Apparently quite a lot… It’s a common saying in football, whether it be fantasy football or your weekly accumulator, you should NEVER back the early kick off! However, is there any actual substance to this claim?

I have chosen to analyse last year’s 3 main captains (Bruno, Kane & Salah) in order to solve the mystery. Our three main men played in the opening fixture of a gameweek seven times last season, averaging 1.29 goals and 0.57 assists, and roughly 12 points (24 when doubled) in FPL. If you offered me a 24 point captain every week, I’d snap your hand off!

I was already pretty biased going into this debate, as somebody that loves statistics, as the time of a game makes no difference as to what the outcome will be. The data couldn’t have been more useful in disproving the myth. In my opinion, we should always captain the player that we believe to be optimal, whether that is the first or last game of the week. So for me, this 100% FPL Fiction.

Bruno | Brighton (A) | Goals: 1 | Assists: 1

Salah | Everton (A) | Goals: 1 | Assists: 0

Salah | Crystal Palace (A) | Goals: 2 | Assists: 1

Bruno | Leicester (A) | Goals: 1 | Assists: 1

Kane | Leeds (H) | Goals: 1 | Assists: 1

Salah |  Leicester (A) | Goals: 1 | Assists: 0

Kane | Everton (A) | Goals: 2 | Assists: 0

Paul Pogba is a bandwagon pick

Paul Pogba has already seen a rise in price this week and will likely get a 2^nd by GW2, after his heroics vs Leeds at Old Trafford on Saturday. The Frenchman assisted 4 goals in a 5-1 win and could have added to his tally put a shot narrowly wide of the post in the first half. I don’t think that FPL managers are spending £7.5m on Paul Pogba expecting 4 returns every week, but is he likely to return regularly or will people be selling in the near future?

Pogba’s average position for Manchester United in a 5-1 win vs Leeds United using Match Stats. 

Pogba has already assisted more goals in one game than he managed in either of the last two seasons, so initially you would suspect that these returns aren’t sustainable. However, Pogba has been given a lot more freedom to roam and potentially play the best football of his career as a left winger, his link up with Bruno in particular was a joy to watch.

Pogba’s key statistics vs Leeds United on Saturday from Player Heatmaps. 

Pogba managed an xGp90 of 0.33 and an xA of 0.81, therefore a total xGIp90 of 1.14,. These numbers are of course not going to continue, as that would put him ahead of any player in the Premier League in 2020/21. If he were however to produce maybe 0.5 xGIp90, then I’d back him as a solid asset in FPL this season.

Given that he scored 4 goals and achieved 6 assists in his previous two seasons, I would back this one to be a massive bandwagon. Especially given that he has only managed 1 goal and 3 assists in 15 games at left wing in his career. There is no statistical reasoning behind a move for Paul Pogba in my opinion, so I am saying that this one is a fact! 

Ismaila Sarr will sustain the level of performance shown vs Villa?

Ismaila Sarr was one of the most exciting players of the opening weekend. He managed to get on the scoresheet vs Villa, and was unfortunate not to receive an assist for the 1^st Watford goal too, in a 3-2 win for the Hornets. Sarr was so impressive in the first half, that Dean Smith was forced into a half time change. It saw left-back Matt Targett taking an early bath after being ripped apart by the Senegalese international. Sarr's heatmap is beautiful, the majority of his touches are in and around the box near the by line, this is incredibly dangerous for opposition defences, and will likely lead to many assists or goal scoring opportunities through the season.

Ismaila Sarr’s heatmap vs Aston Villa on Saturday from Player Heatmaps. 

Ismaila Sarr managed an xGIp90 of 0.37, which is actually down on his numbers from last season of 0.42 in the Championship. Impressively, it is also down on his season average for 19/20 in the Premier League. I was incredibly excited to see how Sarr would perform vs Villa when I saw the team line up at 2pm, Watford lined up in a 433 with Sarr on the right wing. When playing in this formation last season, Sarr amassed a total of 8 goals and 2 assists in 14 fixtures. He was also on penalty taking duty for Watford!

When Watford have a decent run of fixtures Sarr will be incredible value, if playing in a 433 he will likely manage an xGIp90 of well over 0.5 for the season, especially if taking penalties. Therefore, this one is definitely a fact! Sarr is my pick of the £6m midfielders.

It’s too early to jump on DCL

If last season is anything to go by, we need to jump on Dominic Calvert-Lewin right now! The English target man followed up his goal on the opening day with his first ever hat-trick vs West Brom at Goodison Park. Of course, last season plays no part here, so what did we see from Rafa Benitez’s Everton to prove that DCL is a great pick this season?

Well, Everton played a very direct style vs Southampton that suited DCL down to the ground! Everton made 71 long passes, only beaten by Brighton this weekend and they also put 25 crosses into the box, which ranks as the 5^th highest. In addition to only playing one through ball in behind the opposition defence, the 3^rd least. So in essence, Everton are looking to create chances by going long and/or putting balls into the box. This massively benefitted DCL, who accumulated an xG of 0.83 from 5 shots in the opposition's area, the vast majority of which came in the 6 yard box. What excites me about this, is the fact that balls being crossed to DCL around the 6 yard box will result in not only many shots, but also incredibly high xG shots. 

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s shotmap vs Southampton in GW1 from Player Heatmaps. 

Given that Everton have fantastic fixtures coming up, I do not think it’s too early to jump on DCL. So, I am calling this fiction. Especially if you have a player like Lacazette, Iheanacho, Jesus, Ollie Watkins or Timo Werner in your squad!

Salah struggles vs Burnley

Mo Salah played 123 minutes vs Burnley last season and blanked across the 2 fixtures, so at a basic level, you could say that he struggled vs Burnley. However, his underlying stats were very good, he managed an xGIp90 of 1.32, so if you were burnt by a Mo Salah captaincy vs the Clarets last season you were very unfortunate.

Using the Custom Stats Builder tool I was able to total up Mo Salah’s statistics vs Burnley across four seasons and seven matches. Despite his 1 goal and 2 assists, the Egyptian has managed to total an xG of 3.8 and an xA of 2.4, which is not bad at all. 

Season  | Mins   | G         | A         | xG       | xA       | xFPL

17/18      | 90        | 1          | 0          | 0.3      | 0.2      | 8.1

18/19      | 115       | 0          | 1          | 0.7      | 1.1       | 10.5

19/20     | 180       | 0          | 1          | 1.5      | 0.6      | 13.9

20/21     | 123       | 0          | 0          | 1.3     | 0.5      | 11.4

Average per 90  | 0.18    | 0.35    | 0.67    | 0.43    | 7.78

Mo Salah’s key statistics vs Burnley since joining the Premier League using Custom Stats Builder. 

Mo Salah also has an expected FPL points total per 90 of 7.9 vs Burnley, which exceeds his per 90 xFPL in the past three seasons. Although on paper, Mo 'struggles' vs Burnley, he has been unfortunate and he is still a fantastic pick this weekend. This is another bit of Fiction! 

Luke Boarer

@FplIrons