1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Bamford tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 21 with a score of 10.4. The forward took two shots in the box (SiB) and created three ‘big chances’. Salah leads the table for shots (seven), the Egyptian landed four of these on target, notching an xFPL score of 9.8. Meanhwhile, Perez, Groß and Mitrovic were the week’s most creative players with five attempted assists apiece, registering xFPL scores of 5.7, 9.0 and 6.4 respectively. No player was afforded more ‘big chances’ (four) than C. Wilson, the 28-year old led the way for SiB (six), notching an xFPL score of 10.1.

2. A look at Tuchel’s Chelsea

Chelsea’s new German manager has now had two matches at the helm and using the Stats Sandbox their numbers are analysed over that period. Azpilicueta, T. Silva, Rüdiger,  and Mendy were four of the six players to play every minute and they lead the way for xFPL scores with 14.82, 14.21, 11.34 and 10.08 respectively, indicating the Blues’ defensive solidity. Hudson-Odoi also started both matches and posts impressive numbers, leading the way for chances created (six) and shots (four). Werner leads the way for SoT (three) despite playing only 90 minutes. Alonso took two shots and attempted one assist in his only appearance and could be a great prospect if he can find assured game-time under Tuchel.

3. Budget forwards compared

Bamford and C. Wilson showcased their explosive potential this gameweek and using the Fix Comparison Matrix their numbers are compared to other budget forwards over the last two gameweeks. C. Wilson leads the way for FPL points (18), goals (two) and ‘big chances’ (four). In terms of underlying numbers, Watkins is the clear winner with nine shots and six SoT. Only C. Wilson was afforded more ‘big chances’ (four) than his two. Calvert-Lewin’s numbers are poor, he has managed just three shots and one attempted assist across the last two matches and registered zero ‘big chances’. Antonio’s numbers indicate owners should keep the faith, only Watkins (nine) has taken more shots than his (seven).