Latest Content

GW26 Differential Focus

1 March 2023

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.

In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 26 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

Caveats: This article was written on 28th February, with Premier League fixtures still to play. In addition, the FA Cup 5th Round ties – which will have an impact on chip strategy and could see players injured – are still to be played.

DEF: Rico Henry

  • Cost: £4.5m
  • Selected by: 1.2%
  • Next Fixture: FUL (h)

bretford fixtures

Brentford are ranked second for defensive fixture difficulty in the next four Gameweeks - click here for Fixture Planner

With a home game against Fulham, followed immediately by a double in Gameweek 27 – where Brentford faces Everton and Southampton – there are few teams who have it as easy, defensively speaking, as Brentford.

If you are in the market for a good defensive option, who won’t break the bank, then Rico Henry (£4.5m) could be a great pick.

Of all Brentford players, Henry has accumulated the most Expected FPL (xFPL) Points (22.22) in the last five Gameweeks and is ranked fourth for xG with 0.50 according to Opta Stats Sandbox.

MID: Alexis Mac Allister

  • Cost: £5.4m
  • Selected by: 2.4%
  • Next Fixture: WHU (h)

mac allister stats

Mac Allister is under-performing against his underlying statistics - click here for Opta Stats Sandbox

Having blanked in Gameweek 25, Brighton restart their campaign with a home game against West Ham (who are just two points off relegation), followed by a tasty double Gameweek in 27 where they face Leeds and Crystal Palace. Even a difficult fixture against Manchester United is not enough to prevent them from being ranked top of the Fixture Planner attack difficulty table.

While not necessarily the most obvious pick from Brighton’s midfield, Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) has looked good in terms of his underlying data over the last five Gameweeks. Amongst Brighton players, the Argentinian is ranked 2nd for xG (1.79) and top for shots on target (7).

mac allister shot map

Most of Mac Allister's shots have come from inside the box - click here for Opta Player Heatmaps

If you are looking to the future, Brighton are also one of the teams who have a double Gameweek in 29, so he is a good investment for the medium-term too.

FWD: Ollie Watkins

  • Cost: £7.3m
  • Selected by: 6.4%
  • Next Fixture: CRY (h)

watkins points projections

Watkins is forecast to score 21.0 points over the next four Gameweeks - click here for Player Points Projections

Of all the forwards who are owned by less than 10% of managers, the Algorithm favours Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) to score the most points between Gameweeks 26 and 29.

Watkins has looked rejuvenated under Unai Emery’s stewardship, and this is reflected in both his goal count (five in the last five Gameweeks) and his underlying stats. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, no other forward has more shots on target (8) than Watkins, and only Erling Haaland (£12.2m) can match his goal count in that same period.

With games against Crystal Palace, West Ham and Bournemouth, followed by a confirmed double in Gameweek 29, fixtures and form are becoming intertwined for the Aston Villa forward.

By Matt Whelan

Limited-time offer. Win with 50% off.

Join 89% of members who won their main Mini-league last season.

Get 50% off