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GW31 Differential Focus

12 April 2023

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.

In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 31 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

DEF: Rúben Dias

  • Cost: £6.0m
  • Selected by: 6.8%
  • Next Fixture: LEI (h)

man city fixtures

While many of us await the official injury update regarding Luke Shaw (£5.1m), plenty of managers are making their move away from the Manchester United full back early. According to Transfer Analytics, over 250,000 managers have already shifted him out.

If you are looking for a decent differential replacement – one who has good upcoming fixtures, and plays for one of the strongest defences in the Premier League, then look no further than Rúben Dias (£6.0m).

Dias has long been part of Pep Guardiola’s preferred centre-back partnership and is often regarded as being close to ‘nailed on’ in terms of the City selection. Indeed, since returning from injury, Dias has played the full 90 minutes every game since Gameweek 23 (with the exception of his 45-minute introduction against Aston Villa).

man city defensive stats

While City are only ranked joint-fifth for clean sheets (10), a delve into the Opta Stats Sandbox reveals a little more; City have conceded less xG (24.12) and less shots (211) than any other team this season. With a fixture against Leicester up next, and a generous double in Gameweek 34, Dias could be a smart choice, although managers will need to have cover for City’s blank in Gameweek 32.