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GW34 Differential Focus

27 April 2023

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.

In this article we look ahead to blank Gameweek 34 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

Caveat: this article was written on Thursday 27th April, with Gameweek 33 fixtures still to be played.

DEF: John Stones

  • Cost: £5.5m
  • Selected by: 4.0%
  • Next Fixture: FUL (a) + WHU (h)

man city fixtures

Manchester City are ranked second best for defensive fixture difficulty - click here for the Fixture Planner

With two goals in two games, bringing in John Stones (£5.5m) may feel like something of a knee-jerk pick. It is important not to exaggerate the implications of these goals and view them in the wider context; they are the only two goals Stones has scored all season. But we should also acknowledge that the hybrid defensive-midfield role Stones is currently playing could well be enhancing his goal threat.

Despite a lack of clean sheets, Manchester City have been the best defensive team of late. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, City have conceded significantly less xG per 90 (0.66) than any other team in the Premier League over the last ten Gameweeks. They have also conceded fewer shots per 90 (6.63). The underlying numbers suggest that Manchester City have been unlucky to not have more clean sheets this season.

In Gameweek 34, City face Fulham and West Ham. The former is ranked second worst in terms of goal threat, with an xG per 90 of 0.85 over the same time period. West Ham may boast greater goal threat, but are still not producing a great deal going forward, and are ranked 7th from bottom in terms of shots per 90 minutes (11.30).

The combination of form and fixtures could be pointing towards John Stones becoming your next City target and, for those who are not on Free Hit, Manchester City are confirmed to double again in Gameweek 37, plus have good fixtures (Leeds and Everton) in between.