Caveat – This Blog was written prior to the Newcastle vs Brighton game on 18/5/2023

Headliner – Erling Haaland (CHE/bha)

Haaland’s total of six goals over the last six gameweeks is only bettered by C. Wilson amongst forwards (seven), but the Norwegian international is top for shots in the box (SiB) (21), shots on target (SoT) (13), ‘big chances’ (BC) (12) and ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) (5.64). As the below image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, he has averaged 8.1 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points per game this season. Man. City have scored 17 goals over the aforementioned period and only Liverpool (20) have been more prolific. Meanwhile, only Man. Utd (40) and Brighton (42) have landed more SoT than their 39. Their first opponents Chelsea have conceded 10 goals over the last six gameweeks and have kept no clean sheets. The London side are ranked 11th for SiB conceded (55). Their second opponents Brighton have conceded nine goals over the same period and have kept three clean sheets. The Seagulls are ranked eighth for SiB conceded (50). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 13.2 for Haaland.

Bruno Fernandes (bou/CHE)

B. Fernandes has scored only one goal over the last six gameweeks but it is not for the want of trying. The Portuguese international has taken 12 SiB over that period with only Salah (20) attempting more amongst midfielders. He is top for both chances created (26) and BC created (10). As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, he is the third most transferred-in player this week with nearly 150,000 managers bringing him in. Man. Utd have scored seven goals over the last six gameweeks and are second for shots (115) only to Brighton (122). Their first opponents Bournemouth have conceded 12 goals over the aforementioned period and have kept just one clean sheet. The Cherries are ranked 16th for SiB conceded (58). Their second opponents Chelsea have conceded 23 goals in away matches this season and have kept just four clean sheets on their travels. The London side are ranked fourth for SiB conceded in away matches (139). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 8.3 for B. Fernandes.

Anthony Martial (bou/CHE)

Martial found the back of the net against Wolves in gameweek 36 and as the below image from our Match Stats feature shows, over Man. Utd’s last five matches he is joint-top for goals scored (one), fourth for xG (0.9) and third for SoT (four). Man. Utd have scored 51 goals this season (ninth) but are ranked fifth for shots (534). Their hosts Bournemouth have conceded 69 goals this season with only Leeds (71) being more porous. No side has allowed opponents more SiB over the season than the Cherries (387). In the second game, their visitors Chelsea have conceded 41 goals this season (third) and are ranked sixth for SiB conceded (263). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 4.3 for Martial.

Riyad Mahrez (CHE/bha)

Mahrez has been Man. City’s creative hub of late with five assists over the last six gameweeks, more than any player across the league. Only B. Fernandes (26) has created more chances than his 14 while he has also attempted nine shots. As the below image from our FPL Statistics feature shows, he is owned by just 13.5% of the Top 1000 and is a great differential. No team has scored more goals than Man. City (92) this season and they are also top for BC (126) and xG (72.56). Their first opponents Chelsea are ranked sixth for ‘Expected Goals Conceded’ (xGC) (7.53) over the last six gameweeks while their second opponents Brighton are ranked 10th for xGC (8.34). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 7.2 for Mahrez.

Pervis Estupiñán (SOU/MCI)

Estupiñán notched a massive 17-point haul against Arsenal with a goal, assist and a clean sheet and the Ecuadorian international has posted strong underlying numbers over the last six gameweeks. No defender has managed more shots (10), BC (three) or xG (1.42). He has also attempted nine assists and created two BC. Brighton have kept 12 clean sheets this season and are ranked fourth for SiB conceded (250). Their first opponents Southampton have scored seven goals over the last six gameweeks, with only Wolves (six) faring worse. Meanwhile, only Wolves (33) and Chelsea (34) have attempted less SiB than their 37. Their second opponents Man. City have scored 33 goals in away matches this season with only Arsenal (35) more prolific on their travels. The Manchester side are top for xG (32.08) in away matches. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a 60% chance of a Brighton clean sheet and a point score of 7.7 for the left-back.