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GW38 Top Three Captaincy Picks

Fantasy Football Fix 26 May 2023

Caveat - Picks are in the below format

  1. No.1 predicted by Fix 
  2. Alternative high-ownership option. Over 20%
  3. Differential option. Under 20%

Mohamed Salah (sou)

Salah failed to add to his tally of four goals over the last six gameweeks against Villa, the 30-year-old is top amongst midfielders for goals (four), shots in the box (SiB) (19) and xG (4.35) over the same period. Meanwhile, only Mitoma (seven) has been afforded more BC than his six. Liverpool have scored 15 goals over the last six gameweeks with only Man. City (16), Brighton (17) and Newcastle (19) scoring more. Meanwhile, only Brighton (26) and Newcastle (30) have created more BC than their 23. Their opponents Southampton are already relegated and have conceded 16 goals over the last six gameweeks with only Spurs (17) conceding more. Only Wolves (113) and West Ham (124) have conceded more shots than their 108. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 6.6 for Salah.

gw38capssalah

Harry Kane (lee)

Kane has found the back of the net five times over the last six gameweeks with only C. Wilson (eight) more prolific amongst forwards, the England international is fourth for shots on target (SoT) (nine) and fifth for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (2.55) over the aforementioned period. As the Stats Sandbox image below shows, his creative numbers have been excellent as well, only Welbeck (10) has created more chances than his nine while no forward has created more 'big chances' (BC) than his five. Spurs have scored nine goals over the last six gameweeks and are ranked ninth for xG (8.81). Their opponents Leeds have conceded 15 goals over the same period with only Brighton (13.85) notching a worse 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC) figure than their 13.46. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 6.1 for Kane.

gw38capskane

Ollie Watkins (BHA)

Watkins form has slumped after a prolific spell earlier in the season, the forward has scored no goals over the last six gameweeks but as the below image from our Match Stats feature shows, he is top amongst their players over the last five matches for xG (1.7) while only J. Ramsey (three) has had more SoT than his two. Villa have scored 31 goals in their 18 home games at Villa Park this season, they are ranked 11th for xG in home matches (24.43). Their opponents Brighton have struggled defensively of late, the Seagulls have conceded 14 goals over the last six gameweeks with only Southampton (16) and Spurs (17) faring worse. The Seagulls are bottom for xGC (13.85) over the aforementioned period. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 4.6 for Watkins.

gw38capswatkins

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