1. xFPL review

xFPL explained : Expected goals (xG), assists (xA), involvements (xI = xG + xA) and clean sheets (xC) which were expected based on the underlying statistics (e.g. shot type and location). xFPL is the combination of these statistics with appearance and bonus points for an overall expected Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points

A look at the xFPL table for gameweek nine illustrates why it was such a low scoring gameweek for most FPL managers. Only three of the top 10 performers are owned by over 10 percent of managers, Agüero, Mendy and Aubameyang, with the Gabonese striker’s ownership only at 8.7% in live teams.  Four Man. City assets feature as the champions continue to remind us of their pedigree and suggest that despite rotation, Man. City assets are still excellent FPL options. Agüero was perhaps the week’s biggest underperformer, with four ‘big chances’, five shots in the box (SiB) and three shots on target (SoT) but only one goal. Özil has delivered double digit hauls in three of the last four games he has played, and built on his impressive displays with four attempted assists and one SoT in the Gunners’ 3-1 win. Fulham continue to exhibit defensive frailty as three Cardiff players – Paterson (5), Morrison (3) and Murphy (3) feature in the top 15 for SiB for the first time this season. Despite scoring, Salah posted a xFPL score of only 4.4, indicating that managers should not be ripping their teams up to get the Egyptian back just yet.

2. Battle of the ‘budget’ budget mids

With Fraser approaching a fixture run in gameweek 11 (after the upcoming Fulham fixture) that sees him play Man. United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man. City and Wolves in a space of seven weeks, and replacements in the price bracket appearing slim, attention now turns to Murphy (4.8), who scored this weekend and Kenedy (4.9) who has been posting impressive numbers over the past few weeks and has kind upcoming fixtures. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature the two are compared for the last three weeks (Murphy returned from injury in gameweek six vs Man. City playing only 15 minutes), and there is a clear winner. Murphy has taken eight SiB compared to Kenedy’s four, and most of these were from more threatening areas, evidenced by his superior expected goals stat (1.29 to Kenedy’s 0.30). Kenedy is definitely the more creative of the two, but with Newcastle’s strikers suffering a poor run of form, that potential might not be converted to points anytime soon. Warnock has gone on record saying that Murphy is their Messi, indicating that his spot in the starting lineup is not under any threat. With Cardiff not playing any of the ‘big six’ in their next six fixtures after this weekend’s Anfield trip, Murphy certainly deserves consideration, and can cover Doherty’s difficult fixtures in a rotation as shown by our Rotation Planner.

3. Is the ‘big three defense’ here to stay?

In a weekend where many high ownership attackers disappointed, Mendy and Robertson delivered for their owners with 10 and eight points respectively. Although Alonso notched only a point, Trippier came through with six points away to West Ham, highlighting the points potential in premium defenders this season. In terms of average points per match, Mendy (7.8), Alonso (6.8), Trippier (6.5), Robertson (6.3) and Walker (6.3) are in the top 10 across all positions, a list which features five defenders, three midfielders and only two strikers. It is also noticeable that none of these five defenders are center-backs, indicating that spending big on attacking fullbacks from the ‘big six’, with a decent sub for the occasional rotation is a viable strategy. Robertson, Mendy and Alonso all feature in the top 10 in terms of projected points going forward across all positions, and managers should be making plans to accommodate at least two, if not all three, in their squads.