What Have We Learnt This Season?

Over the course of 38 gameweeks many things change. Big players come and go, reputations falter and grow, the Title is won and lost. I ask though: how much of all this is relevant to the thought processes that go into managing our fantasy teams?

To start things off I asked a knowledgeable, experienced and rowdy bunch of regulars from Fantasy Football 247 for a few of their 'Golden Rules' which they generally abide by when playing Fantasy Premier League.

I then reflected on how things have progressed this season and dissected each of them... pondering: "is this Golden Rule still relevant?" for the seasons of FPL to come.

Here's what they had to say:

"Stick to having one big-money defender"

Towards the start of the season we saw the might of Baines shine through. That bubble quickly burst! However, the 2014/15 season has provided two stand-out consistent defenders, in the form of Terry and Ivanovic.

They've both played 90 minutes in every Premier League game to date. During these 3330 minutes Terry and Ivanovic have accumulated 175 points and 177 points respectively. Only five FPL players have scored more points this season: Hazard, Sanchez, Silva, Aguero and Kane.

So perhaps having more than one 'big-hitting' defender could be the way forward next season. After all, the defensive duo would've cost a mere combined 13.5m back in August, which is only a little more than Aguero's price-tag alone!

There are some points to consider though:

- No other defender has really come close to matching these returns this season. So you'd have to make the right initial selections for this tactic to work.

- Realistically, you'd need to stick with your big-money defenders throughout the season to ensure you harvest all of their points, as (like all players) they'll go through hot and cold patches. Patience would be key.

- Finally, if you're thinking of starting with both of the aforementioned Terry and Ivanovic next time around, their initial prices will most likely have increased greatly. This could limit your attacking options which is, as we all know, where most of the points in this game come from.

Verdict: not necessarily a Golden Rule but it would take long-term commitment(and an element of luck)to pick multiple big-money defenders that deliver consistently. I'll be sticking with owning just one for now I think.

"Always play with 3 strikers"

The classic 3-4-3 is definitely the most popular formation in fantasy football.

Just how successful is it though? There are only 16 strikers who have reached the 100 points mark this season. Amongst these are RvP, Berahino and Diouf, which goes to show what a lack of choice there has been for strikers in FPL this season... I recall a similar scenario last season too.

Whereas, far more refreshingly, there have been 34 midfielders which have collected 100 points or more. Of course, this is largely because there are far more regularly starting midfielders than strikers in football teams, sure. But there's still clearly a much wider pool of viable players to choose from in midfield. So why don't we all play 3-5-2 then?

It may be down to this: other than Hazard and Sanchez (and arguably Silva lately) none of the midfielders really seem to get on a run of red-hot-form that continues long enough to deliver us points consistently. The returns of Sterling, Downing, Eriksen and Yaya for instance have been sporadic to say the least. Compare this to Kane, Benteke and Aguero who, once the ball is rolling for them, tend to go on streaks where points are produced gameweek after gameweek for a decent length of time.

I played 3-5-2 for the first 14 gameweeks of the season and enjoyed it. Having Zamora as a cheap 3rd striker on the bench allowed me the freedom of differential midfielders like Tadic (man I'll never forget that GW8 haul) and Chadli. It was a fairly successful experiment which contributed to a mean average of 57.6 points per gameweek.

However, once Kane emerged onto the scene and I switched to 3-4-3 so that I could accommodate him along with Aguero and Costa in GW15, my average weekly haul increased to 59.1 points. That's just one specific example but I suspect a deeper study of this would lead to similar conclusions.

Verdict: the 3 striker rule truly does seems like the safest bet. There's a limited range of choice, but in some ways this helps, as those who do play 90 minutes each week are often far more reliable than midfielders of a similar price-tag. This particular Golden Rule still stands in my opinion.

"Don't be afraid to take hits"

Right then. This one is considerably harder to analyse or judge fairly. I'm going to throw my familiar numbers and stats away here. Let's see...

First off, the current FPL World #1 who is winning by around 40-odd points at the time of writing, has taken no hits whatsoever on his journey to the top.

Secondly, ask almost any FPL manager about a previous success story from taking a hit; they'll probably tell you about how a (-4) or even a (-8) once panned out beautifully, giving them a crazy net gain of 20-odd points, plus setting them up brilliantly for the following gameweeks ahead.

You can tell from these two contradicting points alone that hits are a very circumstantial issue. If we all knew one single 'Golden Rule' for when to take a hit then I think FPL would become very easy, predictable and boring for all of us!

My advice would be this. Look closely at the fixtures ahead and decide if you think your proposed player(s) will actually outscore you current player(s) by more than 4, 8 or 12 points. Sounds simple but that’s literally what you’re saying when you press the confirm button to take a hit.

Hits are merely calculated risks, or gambles if you will, where we pay a small price to do something that we expect will give back much more than the original fee. It's not exactly wise to back Wes Brown to bag a brace (own goals don't count) or QPR to keep a clean sheet, whereas Aguero to score anytime usually sounds pretty good, if you know what I mean.

Verdict: this Golden Rule isn't set in stone but I don't think it's far wrong. If you *are* afraid to take a given hit, then chances areyou probably shouldn’t do it, as deep down your gut is telling you thatsomethingjust isn't logical.

Bonus Rule for this Final Gameweek: "study your opponents' teams in mini-leagues and play tactically to win"

Play safe and cover their players to hold onto that lead? Sell some of your shared players and gamble on differentials to make up ground? Hack into their account..? Ok let’s discuss the first two viable (and fair) options.

Whatever situation you find yourself in, you should first ask yourself: "is this mini-league my priority?" as if not, it may well be better to ignore the teams of your rivals and focus on success in the overall rankings.

Now, if you really want to win, there are 3 scenarios of interest:

- You're winning prior to the final gameweek - but only just - hmmm. This situation is one where I do believe looking at your nearest rival's teams is advisable. Your aim is to reduce the chance of a late final-day-swing in your league table. The more similar the teams in question are, the better, so long as you're happy that all of your team’s players are genuinely likely to earn points of course! Don't copy their worst players; instead, target and draft-in the major one or two players you don't currently own that they do, the ones that are capable of inflicting some serious damage on your tender overall lead. The likes of Silva and Vardy spring to mind.

- You're trailing by 10-15 points or less. Here I'd take a quick peak at the leader's team but no more. Definitely bring in a player who they don't own but keep things sensible. Play your own game. Captain a 'safe' option. I remember managers agonising over their shattered hopes of success a couple of weeks ago when Aguero scored 23 points and they'd captained someone else in an attempt to close the gap in a mini-league. If you're so close to 1st place then there's no need to take such risks: captain Aguero, Sanchez or Hazard on Sunday and let your other players eat up your rival's small advantage. This is only the tiny sprint of a very long race.

- You're trailing by 15 points or more. Scrutinise their team(s) and do everything possible differently. Throw the kitchen sink at them! It's time to gamble as there are only 10 fixtures left. How about a punt on N'Doye saving Hull from relegation? You risk falling even further behind, but hey, no one remembers who came 2nd right? Give your mini-league leader a minor heart attack when they log on and see your final team for the season.

Thanks for reading this article. It's the second time I've been let loose on here and it's been a pleasure to write for FFFix once again. I hope you've found it of some use, if not for Sunday's finale, then for the start of next season! With any luck it'll come round quickly.