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Out of the "blue moon": Fantasy Spotlight

10 April 2015

Greetings once again from Australia, home of the planets biggest and best sporting events. I’d like to take this opportunity to congratulate the Aussies on winning the Cricket World Cup. I’m sure we’re all in agreement that it was a truly fantastic tournament. Fair play to the Kiwis for reaching their first World Cup Final.

Well, talk about rocks or diamonds this week! A fantasy week determined ultimately by the “haves” (Benteke, Austin, Phillips) and the “have nots” (pretty much everyone else!). In the two seasons I have been playing this sublime fantasy game, I cannot recall a gameweek where the range of scoring was so dispersed. To those who had each of the aforementioned Benteke, Austin and Phillips, I salute you. To those who captained one of the aforementioned, congratulations. To the rest of us, we lick our wounds and move on. Anyone in the latter category who has yet to check his/her score or ranking, look away now!

But among the carnage, one stood tall. Proud, in fact. Chest beating. Breath heaving. Shoulders pulled back. Head held high. Muscles taut. Once ridiculed, now the beacon of truth, certainty and credibility on all things fantasy football-related. Once thought relegated to the scrapheap, now commanding front page status across all major online fantasy footballing blogs, sites, fan pages, fixture pieces, page 3 spreads, coaching clinics, and press conferences. Manuel Pellegrini would do well to take notice.

I am of course talking about ME! As the fantasy footballing world is now well aware, blue_moon’s fantasy spotlight struck gold (never mind the fact that it was his first such strike) this week, coolly and calmly predicting amongst the quagmire of hatred and ridicule, that Matthew Phillips (QPR) would indeed deliver. Whilst the fantasy masses gush reverence and praise over Austin (21 points) and Benteke (23 points), the shrewd tacticians will take note that Phillips scored 20 points with little fanfare, achieved through 1 goal, 3 assists, and 2 bonus points. This takes his tally in his last 8 matches to 2 goals, 7 assists, and 4 bonus points, solidifying his status as one of the form players in the premier league (both the fantasy and on-field varieties). At just 1.2% ownership, it took the eagle eyes of one blue_moon to spot the potential.

The question, now, is whether to buy, hold or sell (as applicable). Unfortunately, it gets tough for QPR, as not only do they face Chelsea this week, but they have a blank GW 33, before facing West Ham, Liverpool and Man City in their subsequent 3 matches. The emotional and physical toll of the double gameweek may just take the edge off their future performances. On this basis, it may be worth cashing in your Austin and Phillips chips.

Anyway, enough of the past. Time once again to focus on the future. Specifically, we turn our thoughts, hopes and prayers to that hallowed period, in which we reflect on the forgotten men of fantasy football: those deserted by the very "football fantasisers" on whose bedroom walls their photos once stood proud; those in respect of whom effigies are now burnt across the globe. Once loved, now maligned. From "must haves" to "differentials". The very scapegoats towards whom online expletives, vitriol, and downright hatred are targeted when that dreaded red arrow (the scourge of fantasy football) graces our webpages. 

And so, blue_moon's "fantasy spotlight" assumes its rightful position at the top of the fantasy football tree.

Whom shall I summon to the summit this time?

An interesting selection, but I bring you:

sturridge dance

DANIEL STURRIDGE (LIVERPOOL) 

Hmmmm….

Don’t let his current ownership percentage (9.1%) fool you. This guy is a genuine differential. Most of the 9.1% are “ghost teams” who put the cue in the rack long ago. His ownership percentage among those still actively playing is likely to be around 1%.

This of itself raises a compelling proposition: the one key take-out I recall from season 2013/14 of fantasy football is that point’s hauls can appear somewhat cyclical, particularly at the front-end and back-ends of the season. In other words, players who perform well at the start of the season generally lull during the middle parts of the season (whether because of injury or form) but then finish strongly. On this basis, think Sturridge, Sigurdsson, Rooney, Ramsey, Baines, Benteke et al for 2014/15. What the above also means, if the proposition indeed holds true, is that “ghost teams” may dominate scoring for the last 7 weeks of season 2014/15. Funnily enough, we’re already starting to see signs of this as the likes of Rooney, Benteke and Sigurdsson come into form after having relatively quiet middle periods of the season, following strong starts. The fact Everton kept a clean sheet over the weekend (probably the first in about 20 gameweeks!) reinforces the proposition in my view: in fact, this is the test of statistical significance on which econometricians rely to confirm a base hypothesis! No further correspondence need be entered in relation thereto…

You heard it here first, ladies and gents!

On the basis of the above, I’m calling out Sturridge (being in my view the genuine differential among active players from the above group at this point of the season).

Injuries haven’t helped poor Daniel, of course. Periodic glimpses of the return to the form of 2013/14, which made him a fantasy “must have” alongside Mr Chomp himself, Luis Suarez, have been curtailed by injury after injury, compounded by a stint in an American rehabilitation facility (well, so we think)! 

In saying that, though, the rare moments that Daniel has had on the pitch, have indeed produced some quality performances. 3 goals in his last 9 matches itself doesn’t make for fancy viewing, but bear in mind that he’s only played 90 minutes twice in that time, and during this period also (with little fanfare) registered 3 assists. Other than his goal in the opening round against Southampton, these represent his entire season stats, which of itself is suggestive of the proposition that he’s ready to finish the season strongly as he matures into full match fitness.

Following their victory in the FA Cup reply against Blackburn on Wednesday night, Liverpool’s remaining fixtures have now been officially confirmed. How’s this for a fixture list for a striker who, on his day, is probably up there with the best in the league: GW32 - Newcastle (H), GW33 – Blank, GW34 - West Brom (A) & Hull (A), GW35 - QPR (H), GW36 - Chelsea (A), GW37 - Crystal Palace (H), GW38 - Stoke (A)?

Whilst he’s not back to his best, I expect that a couple of 90 minute performances will engender the confidence that he needs to finish the season strongly. He was reported as being somewhat timid in Liverpool’s FA Cup reply against Blackburn on Wednesday night, but here’s hoping that some of the cobwebs have been removed, and he’s back in the starting XI this weekend in the premier league.

At the end of the day, Liverpool need to give everything to their fleeting cause for a top 4 finish, and thus a shot at Champions League qualification. What this further means is that Liverpool need goals, and lots of them. A fully-fit Sturridge is undoubtedly central to that cause. With Princess Sterling giving us the blueprint on not only how to induce irreparable damage to one’s own career, but also burn all bridges between a footballer and the world’s most supported football club and one of the most iconic sporting brands in the world at the same time, Brendan Rodgers will likely point to Sturridge to be the attacking nucleus upon which Liverpool’s fortunes rest. I really hope he gets back to his attacking best.

Best of luck to all.


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